This article is part of our The Z Files series.
Who would have ever though shortstop would be a deeper fantasy position than first base? Yet here we are. It used to be the overflow at the position comprised many utility spots, but now if you wait too long, you're holding your nose. After constructing these tiers, it appears one of the reasons is the proliferation of high-power, low-average guys. Also, there hasn't been an influx of young talent over the last few years compared to the restocking of shortstop and third base.
By means of reminder, this is the next installment in my "Tiers of a Clown" series. Covered thus far are
The idea behind these tiers is that ranking in the traditional manner can lead to tunnel vision, since the focus is on a static projection and not the peripheries. A competitive roster is a combination of raw talent and fit, as you put pieces together in the most efficient manner. These tiers account for the latter.
The beauty of this process is it's individual. If you take the time to go through the exercise, you'll come up with different tier headings. If there's an overlap, the constituents within each group could be different. If we agree on the header and players, the order could be altered.
The order the groups are presented in is arbitrary, but the players within them are ranked roughly in order of quality. Some players could populate multiple groups, so I chose the one most apropos to my
Who would have ever though shortstop would be a deeper fantasy position than first base? Yet here we are. It used to be the overflow at the position comprised many utility spots, but now if you wait too long, you're holding your nose. After constructing these tiers, it appears one of the reasons is the proliferation of high-power, low-average guys. Also, there hasn't been an influx of young talent over the last few years compared to the restocking of shortstop and third base.
By means of reminder, this is the next installment in my "Tiers of a Clown" series. Covered thus far are
The idea behind these tiers is that ranking in the traditional manner can lead to tunnel vision, since the focus is on a static projection and not the peripheries. A competitive roster is a combination of raw talent and fit, as you put pieces together in the most efficient manner. These tiers account for the latter.
The beauty of this process is it's individual. If you take the time to go through the exercise, you'll come up with different tier headings. If there's an overlap, the constituents within each group could be different. If we agree on the header and players, the order could be altered.
The order the groups are presented in is arbitrary, but the players within them are ranked roughly in order of quality. Some players could populate multiple groups, so I chose the one most apropos to my usual team construction. Players eligible at multiple spots will be included at each legal position, using seven games played in 2020 as the guide.
With that as a backdrop, here are my first base classifications with a brief explanation. Afterwards, I'll list the players within each, with individual and group commentary.
- FOMO: Some risk, but upside is huge
- Book It: Track record of durability and reliability
- Big Power, Average Drain: Self-explanatory
- On the Rise: Young players with limited (if any) MLB experience
- Live or Memorex: Displayed an improved skill over a small sample
- Welcome Back: Missed 2020
- Playing Time: Unemployed, role uncertain, or someone else is lurking
- Rebound: Coming off a subpar 2020
- And the Rest: Mostly AL/NL-only fodder
FOMO
| Cody Bellinger | Been at the top of the mountain, can he return? |
| Vladimir Guerrero | Is this the season? |
Take out 2019, and Bellinger is a guy with some pop who also runs. But 2019 did happen and it was supported by underlying metrics, most notably more frequent and authoritative contact. Bellinger's K% remained low last season, but he didn't square up batted balls at the same rate. The wild card is he's coming off shoulder surgery.
Doesn't it feel like Guerrero should be a post-hype guy? He won't turn 22 until the day before St. Patrick's Day. 'Nuff said.
Book It
| Freddie Freeman | It took MVP season for fantasy market to rank him properly |
| Jose Abreu | See Freeman, except now he's ranked too high |
| DJ LeMahieu | Like a chameleon, he adapts to his home park |
| Anthony Rizzo | Hasn't been the same since losing 2B eligibility |
| Paul Goldschmidt | Yeah, we know he doesn't run anymore, find something else to criticize. Right, I can't either |
This group didn't have to be exclusively early-round players, but it turned out that way. With the first base inventory being shallower than normal, I'm likely to favor this classification. In past seasons, Abreu was a prime target, but after last season's MVP campaign the market could be too aggressive. Early indications are Rizzo and Goldschmidt will be the "bang for the buck" guys in this group.
Big Power, Average Drain
| Pete Alonso | Just a handful fewer strikeouts away from the Book It tier |
| Rhys Hoskins | Coming off elbow surgery, could result in slow start |
| Matt Olson | Rise in K% a concern, but deserves benefit of doubt in short season |
| Max Muncy | Plate skills similar to previous seasons, but BABIP plummeted from fewer line drives |
| Mike Moustakas | Weird to see no 3B eligibility |
| Carlos Santana | Kauffman will help average but could hurt power |
| Miguel Sano | Still among leaders in exit velo |
| Jared Walsh | Underlying skills aren't terrible, but still due significant regression |
| Hunter Dozier | 2019 looks like the outlier |
| Mitch Moreland | Assuming there will be universal DH in 2021 |
| Ji-Man Choi | The improved glove he flashed in the playoffs should keep Choi on strong side of platoon |
Here is where you don't want to draft the projected rankings since they come with baggage. However, if your team construction can buffer a low average, this set can help you in three categories. I'm more likely to invest in the middle to bottom of the group, once I know my average can withstand the hit. Digging a hole in the category early means you're chasing, not choosing, in later rounds.
On the Rise
| Alec Bohm | Average obviously coming down, but landing should be soft |
| Ryan Mountcastle | Another high BA due regression (.398 BABIP), but plate skills seem solid and Camden boosts power |
| Jake Cronenworth | Breakthrough fully supported |
| Evan White | Could have used time in Triple-A to work on contact |
| Bobby Dalbec | Classic slugger profile, but needs to make more contact |
| Michael Chavis | Took step back, still chases high heat and outside sliders |
| Andrew Vaughn | Is the DH talk real? |
| Pavin Smith | Close to a 1:1 BB:K ratio in minors |
| Josh Fuentes | Already 27 years old and we all know how the Rockies don't commit to prospects |
In the opening, the lack of up-and-coming stars was mentioned. This is it, friends. Spencer Torkelson and Triston Casas could make the list next season, but for now only Vaughn has a legit chance to be a top-75 batter. Not to mention, many of these youngsters are eligible at other spots.
As for targets, plate discipline is high on my list and Bohm and Mountcastle both check that box.
Live or Memorex
| Luke Voit | Last season's power hard to maintain, but one more solid season and Voit moves to Book It |
| Eric Hosmer | Can he maintain added loft? |
| Josh Bell | Can he regain 2019's added loft? |
| Brandon Belt | Does he carry over increased exit velocity? With the right field fences moved in, Belt could really benefit |
| Jeimer Candelario | Big spike in exit velocity with improved contact, can he sustain the gains? |
In all instances here, it would have been helpful to see what happened over a full season. As is, we're left guessing. I'm most interested in Hosmer and Belt as the market hasn't really reacted to their 2020 numbers. That is, you can pay the previous price and have some upside baked in. For what it's worth, I'm optimistic both retain at least some of their improvement, rendering them nice corner or utility options.
Welcome Back
| Trey Mancini | Important thing is he's back and on track for spring training. Aided by happy fun ball in 2019 |
| C.J. Cron | Was my favorite Book It fallback, now hoping he finds a full time job |
Spring training numbers don't mean anything, but I'll cop to tracking Mancini and Cron to gauge how the extended time off affects timing, etc.
Playing Time
| Dominic Smith | Assuming the Mets find regular at-bats, potentially via universal DH |
| Christian Walker | Deserves Book It, but need to allow for chance of slump or short side of platoon with Pavin Smith |
| Jesus Aguilar | Enough competition in South Beach that struggles could land him in platoon |
| Ryan McMahon | Just never know how the Rockies will dole out playing time |
| Wilmer Flores | 2020 was the first season he was an everyday player, could be again with NL DH |
| Danny Santana | Where does he land and what is his role? |
| Colin Moran | Needs the DH to ensure regular playing time |
| Rowdy Tellez | Many moving parts, does Tellez continue to play against all RHP? |
| Garrett Cooper | Another example of needing the DH to assure playing time |
| Tommy La Stella | Last season was his first as a regular, team and role still up in the air |
| Howie Kendrick | Likely not a regular, but how much action will he get? |
| Eric Thames | Declining 34-year-old free agent first baseman likely not hot commodity |
| Travis Shaw | Likely looking at a minor-league deal |
| Daniel Vogelbach | Probably slated for lefty part of 1B or DH platoon, Miller Park should help. Interesting reserve dart |
| Jose Martinez | Only plausible path to fantasy relevance is as regular DH |
| Renato Nunez | Won't turn 27 years old until early April - should latch on somewhere, but role obviously uncertain |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | Likely headed for fantasy unfriendly utility role |
| Justin Smoak | Another guy probably needing minor-league deal to get another major-league chance |
| Daniel Murphy | Even as launch angle disciple, couldn't take advantage of Coors |
| Jake Bauers | Forgotten man, but still just 25 years old |
| Nate Lowe | Hard to keep track of all the Lowes in Tampa |
| Jake Lamb | Showed enough down the stretch with Oakland to merit look somewhere |
After the first few names, the order within this group is arbitrary, depending on eventual team and role. I generally avoid this group as history shows there are fewer in-season replacements at first base (see the lack of prospects), so I'd rather look for playing time reliability at the position and gamble on at-bats elsewhere. Depending how things flesh out in the spring, some of the better hitters in this group could shift to other tiers, primarily Book It or High Power, Low Average.
Rebound
| Joey Votto | Statcast metrics on the decline. Do they continue, or is there one last hurrah? |
| Yuli Gurriel | Turning 37 years old next season |
| Marwin Gonzalez | Could go in Playing Time, but performance was such a drop off, it merits attention |
Even though the price tag to see if Votto has anything left is minimal, I'd rather direct the opportunity cost elsewhere. I'd sooner take a shot on Gurriel, even though he's just one year younger than Votto.
And the Rest
I'll conclude each position with players others may choose in mixed leagues, but I have no interest, at least not currently.
As always, please let me know who I missed, what headings you would use, etc.
NEXT WEEK: Second basemen
