Bernie on the Scene: Analyzing NL Offseason Moves

Last week I wrote about important transactions made in the offseason by American League clubs.

This week, I turn to National League clubs to discuss some very consequential transactions that have taken place. Many of these will impact our fantasy team rosters this season.

This list is not all-inclusive. Next week I will feature other players new to their teams who have not been profiled as yet.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Yu Darvish
Right-handed pitcher
6-5, 220
Age 34
Acquired in trade from Cubs

The Cubs are shedding payroll whenever and wherever possible. Darvish may have been moved for several reasons. First, he is in the midst of a nine-year, $120M contract he signed that doesn't expire until after the 2023 season. The Padres will be on the hook for $62M until then.

The Cubs may also be wary of Darvish due to his arm injury history. He has had Tommy John surgery and has missed time due to arm, shoulder and forearm soreness.

And, the Cubs may wonder how many pitches remain in his 34-year-old right arm.

An All-Star four times in his eight-year major league career, Darvish also has seven seasons pitching in Japan and an additional two seasons of minor league baseball in the United States. 

Darvish is still an outstanding starting pitcher with a vast repertoire of deceptive pitches. He will throw any of six pitches at any point in the count, and he throws them for strikes.

Conclusions: Fantasy managers should note that Darvish will now be pitching in a home park with less consistent wind than Wrigley Field. That's a plus. But he will also have to pitch at Coors and Chase Field, both high altitude parks where balls fly.

I see Darvish as the new ace of the Padres staff and a good, solid draft choice or auction target. He'll get the ball, throw plenty of innings and win — if he can stay healthy. That's my only issue. He's coming to a good team. But beating the Dodgers will be drummed into his head, and I think that could have an impact either way, good or bad.

Blake Snell
Left-handed pitcher
6-4, 225
Age 28
Acquired in trade from Rays

Having just turned 28 in December, Snell now goes to the National League as the left-handed part of the new Darvish-Snell tandem at the top of the Padres rotation.

We all know and saw how Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash handled Snell in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series. It was a travesty. Snell now escapes micro-managing with strict metrics defining his work load. Jayce Tingler is the new handler of the Padres roster from the dugout. We don't know how he will use his outstanding pitching staff.

We have seen inconsistency from Snell. When he's healthy, he's been a strike-throwing machine. He has been counted on to strike out 11 or 12 hitters per nine when he gets in a healthy groove. But — and beware of this — he can be umpire dependent with his sharp breaking secondary pitches. He has a walk rate of 3.2 per nine. Not horrible, but it could impact your stats.

Hitters really don't make great contact and barrel the ball off Snell's offerings, because everything seems to move. I sat behind home plate to watch him in spring training in Florida, and I was amazed at how effortlessly he could make his pitches dance.

Consider that in 2018, an All-Star, Cy Young year, Snell yielded 112 hits in 180 innings. I'll take that anytime. But then, he got hurt in 2019. The Rays were careful with him last season.

Conclusions: The Padres have a solid rotation with Darvish, Snell, Dinelson Lamet (if healthy) Chris Paddack (if he returns to who we thought he was) and a yet to be acquired fifth starter.

Snell gets the same home field benefits I mentioned for Darvish. He also gets the same liabilities of pitching in Colorado and Arizona. This won't be Tampa Bay. He'll also have to learn a new set of hitters in the National League. 

I expect a good starting pitcher. Maybe not a Cy Young Award winner, but a solid starter with good numbers. BUT — I still think his arm could bark. Beware.

Victor Caratini
Switch-hitting catcher
6-1, 215
Age 27
Acquired in trade from Cubs

Caratini will prove to be a real bonus for San Diego . He can hit a little and is a good receiver. 

A backup catcher, Caratini likely will be the personal catcher for Yu Darvish. He may also catch another time every week. Switch-hitting helps him find at-bats. While he's a bit better hitting left-handed vs. RHP, he holds his own from both sides of the plate.

Caratini hit 11 homers in 2019, which isn't bad for a backup catcher. 

Conclusions: In two catcher leagues, Caratini may be better than most players available on the board when the second catcher is chosen. Give him a look, and remember he's a switch-hitter. I think he could be a sleeper catcher on the draft board.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Josh Bell
Switch-hitting first baseman
6-4, 250
Age 28
Acquired in trade from Pirates

I would imagine someone had to scrape Josh Bell off the ceiling after he cashed in his GET OUT OF JAIL FREE card from Pittsburgh in his trade to the Nationals. What a career break.

Now, it is up to Bell to prove me correct. I think he can be a game-changing, offensive force in a lineup with threatening bats surrounding him. That's Washington. It isn't Pittsburgh.

Entering arbitration for the second year, Bell is a free agent in 2023. That gives the Nationals plenty of time to evaluate his impact on their team.

Bell has power. This is a guy who hit 37 homers in 2019. Even with a juiced ball, he hit some rocket shots that are still in the air. Prior to the 2020 short season, he drove in more than 100 runs the previous three years, hitting for an awful, triple-A level club.

Conclusions: I would not hesitate to have Bell on my fantasy team. He is especially dangerous against right-handed pitching. But, he should still remain on your roster facing lefties.

Imagine the damage he can do hitting behind Trea Turner and Juan Soto and ahead of Kyle Schwarber. I'll take that. Please don't bid against me. I want this guy. And I wanted him for my Cleveland Indians, who clearly could have packaged more than Pittsburgh got from Washington. That's a story for another article.

Kyle Schwarber
Left-handed hitting outfielder (catcher)
6-0, 225
Age 27
Acquired as a free agent

I remember seeing Kyle Schwarber in the Arizona Fall League. He was just out of Indiana University. He was a monster hitter with a bat in his left hand. That was 2016, not that long ago.

The Cubs discarded Schwarber, as they did Darvish. They likely thought Schwarber was a clank in the outfield and he would be getting expensive. True. But this guy hit 30, 26 and 38 homers before hitting 11 in the short season. The Cubs don't need that? Are you kidding me?

Now Schwarber takes his Swiss cheese left field glove to Washington. But if MLB ever approves the universal designated hitter, Schwarber's stock skyrockets. Until then, I think Schwarber will win far more games with his bat than he loses with his glove.

Conclusions: Schwarber will have a boatload of RBI opportunities if he hits cleanup for the Nationals. I'll take that. So will Washington. He'll also score plenty of runs and hit home runs. What's not to like? And yes, he'll strike out 150 times. If your league punishes you for offensive strikeouts, weigh the risk/reward.

NEW YORK METS

Francisco Lindor
Switch-hitting shortstop
5-11, 190
Age 27
Acquired in trade from Indians

Now in his prime one season before he can become a free agent, Lindor assumes the shortstop role for the Mets. He will likely hit third in their lineup.

Lindor signed a $23.3M contract, far too much for Cleveland's Dolan family owners. But the Mets wanted to show him their love. For Love and Money.

Readers who have followed me for years, know that I was born in Cleveland and I have always been an Indians fan. Frankly, I'm not upset about losing Lindor.

Over time, I have seen Lindor's game change. He is swinging at pitches he would never have dreamed of considering in his past. Why? He's hunting home runs. Home runs now mean more to Lindor than anything. His lack of plate discipline is an issue for me.

And seeking the long-term contract, will he get more homer crazed? An insider baseball friend of mine is totally convinced the Mets are Lindor's best option for a long-term deal. In fact, he thinks the Mets are his only option at his inflated asking price.

Lindor will deliver solid statistics to fantasy managers. However, we really don't know how he'll react to the National League and playing home games in New York. We don't know how he'll react to a much, much more critical press than he ever had in Cleveland.

In the 2020 season, Lindor hit eight homers and drove in 27 runs in 266 plate appearances. He stole six bases in eight attempts. His swing looked totally out of sync to me. Totally. By the way, he has hit better left-handed in his career.

Lindor always thought he was worth Mookie Betts money. Maybe he'll get that much. Maybe not.

Conclusions: I like pending free-agent shortstops Corey Seager and Trevor Story better than Lindor at this particular moment. Javier Baez comes in fourth.

I think Lindor will give his fantasy managers a good return. But I don't think he's the superstar he thinks he is, and I don't think he'll hit 38 homers playing in New York, Washington or Miami. Philadelphia and Atlanta could be good for Lindor's swing. We'll see.

Carlos Carrasco
Right-handed pitcher
6-4, 224
Age 33
Acquired in trade from Indians

Trading Carrasco to the Mets really upset me. He's a wonderful human being who beat leukemia and returned to pitch well for the Indians. They rewarded him with a trip out of town. And frankly, he seems to be excited to go to a team that has a chance to put good players around him. That wouldn't have been the case anymore in Cleveland.

The Indians shed $12M of 2021 salary by trading Carrasco. He is then owed $12M, $12M and had a club option for $14M in 2023. 

As I write this, the Indians payroll stands at $27M. The Mets have unlimited Steve Cohen money to spend.

Carrasco likely will slot right behind Jacob deGrom in the Mets rotation. That means he'll get plenty of starts and likely will pitch deep into games, provided he stays healthy.

Carrasco has a nasty repertoire that includes a wicked, wicked slider and curve. The fastball still works well in the mid-90s, but the slider and then the changeup get hitters out.

Conclusions: Carrasco will be a bulldog for the Mets. He'll take the ball and give his best. He won't take a moment off. He can return some good numbers for fantasy managers, if the Mets get some offensive help. Which they will.

Next Week: More transactions analyzed.

HEADING HOME

Last week, minor league offices at every level were shut down. Closed. Shuttered. For good.

Great minor league executives are out of baseball. MLB will take over the management of the minor leagues and players remaining. They want to manage minor league baseball without adding many new bodies. Good luck with that.

I am told that the MLB Player's Association is looking very closely at bringing minor league players under their umbrella. That is a move that should have been made years ago. But it isn't too late.

Long-term baseball executives, many of them friends and former supervisors of mine, have been terminated. Or "bought out." Let Go. Dismissed. Thanks, but don't let the door hit you on the way out.

I am also hearing the future of the Arizona Fall League is in serious jeopardy. Some in MLB want it to go away. They claim they can do the same with the Instructional League. Really?

The Fall League will be the next MLB player development shoe to drop. The Emperor will have absolutely no clothes.

The most recent Fall League Director, Billy Bavasi (a former MLB general manager, and my boss when I was with the Mariners) has accepted his adios buy-out. The previous Fall League Director, Steve Cobb had been jettisoned when Rob Manfred came to his throne.

Sad. All of it is sad to me. All of it is so unnecessary.

I think Rob Manfred and his cronies may be looking for the bullets to put in their guns. It won't be long until they shoot MLB in the head and put the entire sport out of its misery. I think they better wake up. Baseball fans won't stay loyal forever. 

Follow me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff and read articles like this one at forbes.com.