Bernie on the Scene: NL West Analysis & Predictions

This week I begin a six-part series analyzing each MLB division.

I will include: My projected lineup for each club. LH or RH hitter or pitcher My fantasy grade for the player from A thru F- and a brief comment.

I will begin with the NL West, followed by AL West, NL Central, AL Central, NL East and AL East.

Again, the lineups are my projections at the time I write the article. Of course, they can and probably will change. It is my best guesstimate at the time.

I will not grade bench players.

You likely will disagree with my player grades. That's to be expected. Everyone has their own opinion. That's why they make chocolate and vanilla ice cream along with 50 other flavors. People's opinions differ.

I believe team win totals are important. Scoring runs is what it's all about. And that holds true in fantasy as well. Scoring runs matters.

Note: For me, fantasy is an individual undertaking. I look at Average Draft Positions (ADP), but I draft or bid on players I want on my team. Players I can root for. And frankly, it isn't always about winning for me. Yes, winning is great. The best. But being competitive, having fun and making baseball more personal and compelling rule the day for me. And I can't control injuries or bad luck. So, I don't dwell on having to finish in first place.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Estimated $248M payroll
My Estimated Win Total: 103

Mookie Betts, RF, BR, Grade A
Can carry his team and maybe your team

Corey Seager, SS, BL, Grade A-
Big season in his walk year

Justin Turner, 3B, BR, Grade B-
Getting his big payday means added pressure

Cody Bellinger, CF, BL, Grade A-
Uppercut swing brings homers, RBIs and runs

Max Muncy, 1B, BL, Grade B-
Position versatility could help in fantasy

Will Smith, C, BR, Grade C
My jury is still out, but he's fantasy worthy

AJ Pollock, LF, BR, Grade C
Not seeing a big return on fantasy investments

Chris Taylor, 2B, BR-Grade C-
Adequate and versatile, but not sure he keeps this job

Rotation

Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Grade A-
Still an incredibly good pitcher in all categories

Walker Buehler, RHP, Grade A-
We haven't seen the best of Buehler yet

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Grade B
Solid, but I see organizational storm clouds

Julio Urias, LHP, Grade B+
If he stays healthy, he's wicked good

David Price, LHP, Grade B-
I worry about his health; I think he'll be on the IL

Closer: Kenley Jansen, RHP, Grade B-
In his walk year, he has had some issues

8th Inning: Blake Treinen, RHP, Grade C+
Will get plenty of holds and some saves

7th or 8th Inning: Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Grade B-
A set-up sleeper with upside

Bench

C Austin Barnes, BR
Can play elsewhere and will see his time behind the plate with solid skills

INF Gavin Lux, BL
Could get plenty of time at 2B and hurt Taylor's value

INF/OF Matt Beaty, BL
Entering his prime, he can't win a starting role

INF/OF Edwin Rios, BL
He can spell Muncy at first and can hit with big time power

The Dodgers will only be challenged by the Padres in the NL West. They have some outstanding offensive players atop the order. Their pitching is what makes this team so special. They will not have an extended losing streak at any time in the season. Any one of those pitchers can win any game at any time. And they also have Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May waiting in the wings if someone gets hurt (Price?) or is ineffective. The bench will play here due to matchups.

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Estimated payroll $174M
My Estimated Win Total: 94

Trent Grisham, CF, BL, Grade C
Not much average or power, steals bases

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, BR, Grade A
Threatening to be among the elite

Manny Machado, 3B/BR, Grade A-
Could hit 35 homers, but I'm cautious

Eric Hosmer, 1B, BL, Grade C+
Padres own him and pay him forever and the job is his

Wil Myers, RF, BR, Grade C+
Coming off improvement, but overpaid and overvalued

Tommy Pham, LF, BR, Grade C
Has to produce in his walk year — Meh

Jake Cronenworth, 2B, BL, Grade B-
Terrific Swiss Army Knife

Austin Nola, C, BR, Grade C+
Flexible positions increase his fantasy value

Rotation

Yu Darvish, RHP, Grade A
If healthy, could be a Cy Young candidate with his great stuff

Blake Snell, LHP, Grade B
Health issues possible, and I think his innings are monitored

Dinelson Lamet, RHP, Grade B-
I'm concerned about possible elbow, or arm issues

Joe Musgrove, RHP-Grade C+
Upside remains and new team should help him

Chris Paddack, RHP, Grade C
Time for him to show who he is as a starter

Closer (multiple choices):

Emilio Pagan, RHP, Grade C+
I'm not totally sold

Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Grade C
The money says he'll get plenty of opportunities

8th inning: Mark Melancon, RHP, Grade C-
Maybe this guy sneaks in as the closer

Bench

C/1B Victor Caratini, BB
Will catch Darvish and maybe someone else

INF/OF Ha-seong Kim, BR
I have no idea what he brings from Korea

INF/OF Jurickson Profar,BB 
Ready, willing and able if someone falters

INF/OF Jorge Mateo, BR
Not much of an offensive presence at all

The Padres really made a statement by adding Darvish, Snell and Musgrove. I still don't think they have a good enough offense to come close to the Dodgers. Too many streaky hitters like Hosmer, Pham and Myers concern me. I do like what Cronenworth has shown. Pitching is fine.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Estimated Team Payroll $98M
My Estimated Win Total: 79

Kole Calhoun, RF, BL, Grade C
Takes aim at cozy RF stands and hits some homers

Ketel Marte, CF, BB, Grade B-
Has ability to help in several categories

David Peralta, LF, BL, Grade C+
Not enough pop, but a good hitter; beware of platoon

Christian Walker, 1B, BR, Grade C
Could hit 25 homers and play regularly

Eduardo Escobar, 3B, BB, Grade C+
Not enough consistent recent production

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, BB, Grade C
They brought him in to play him

Carson Kelly, C, BR, Grade C-
Little power, little speed but an average hitter

Nick Ahmed, SS, BR, Grade C
Has made himself into a better hitter

Rotation

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Grade C+
Huge financial mistake by the Diamondbacks

Zac Gallen, RHP, TBD Grade B
A real sleeper as a starter in a tough park for him

Caleb Smith, LHP, Grade C+
Will find Chase Field much tougher than Miami

Luke Weaver, RHP, Grade C
Time for him to step up on a consistent basis

Merrill Kelly, RHP, Grade C
Has potential but has been inconsistent

Closer: Joakim Soria, RHP, Grade C-
The job is his if he can hold it at age 37

8th inning: Tyler Clippard, RHP
I think he'll get closing chances and push Soria

Bench

C Stephen Vogt, BL
Has faded badly as a hitter and may barely hang on

OF Tim Locastro, BR
Has speed and can play defense

INF/OF Josh VanMeter, BL
Not much of a hitter, but has speed

INF/OF Andy Young, BR 
Will serve as the primary utility infielder

The Diamondbacks never learn their lesson. They will pay Bumgarner $19M, $23M and $14M the next three seasons. That is money they could have spent elsewhere. He's only 31, but there are a ton of innings on his arm. While they have some good hitters, they have not produced as planned (see Escobar, Marte, Peralta). But if they hit, they can come in third in the division.

COLORADO ROCKIES
Estimated Team Payroll $137M
My Estimated Win Total: 69

Raimel Tapia, LF, BL, Grade C+
We've been waiting for him and he could arrive

Trevor Story, SS, BR, Grade A
Walk year could be awesome as he seeks a payday

Charlie Blackmon, RF, BL, Grade B
Not the force he was in the past, but still darn solid

Ryan McMahon, 3B, BL, Grade C
Gets the first crack at Arenado's position

C.J. Cron, 1B, BR, Grade C
Currently not on 40-man roster

Sam Hilliard, CF, BL, Grade C
Could hit 20 homers, but low average

Brendan Rodgers, 2B, BR, Grade C+
Not much pop, but solid enough

Elias Diaz, C, BR, Grade C
Won't hit for power or run, but could hit for nice average

Rotation

German Marquez, RHP, Grade B-
Anywhere but Coors he'd be a star

Kyle Freeland, LHP, Grade C
He gets beaten up with regularity

Antonio Senzatela, RHP, Grade C
He's pitching half his games in Coors

Jon Gray, RHP, Grade C
He's in his walk year and can get out of Coors

Austin Gomber, LHP, Grade C-
Welcome to Coors Field

Closer: Daniel Bard, RHP, Grade C
Yikes

8th Inning: Mychal Givens, RHP
In his walk year with get out of jail card waiting

Bench

C Dom Nunez, BL
Not much of a bat at all

IB Josh Fuentes, BR
I think he fights Cron and maybe Greg Bird for 1B job

INF/OF Garrett Hampson, BR
Could platoon with Hilliard or even Rodgers

OF Yonathan Daza, BR
Solid hitter with little power could emerge

This isn't the same Rockies team without Arenado. However, they have a better offense than the Giants. But pitching in Coors is very, very tough. They will have to score plenty of runs and the offense isn't that deep. No way they keep Trevor Story.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Estimated Team Payroll $151M
My Estimated Win Total: 68

Tommy La Stella, 3B, BL, Grade C P>
Should be long side of a platoon

Donovan Solano, 2B, BR, Grade C
Won't give you power, but nice batting average

Mike Yastrzemski, RF, B Grade C
Not a typical cleanup hitter; Platoon

Alex Dickerson, LF, BL, Grade C+ P>
Likely in a platoon situation 

Buster Posey, C, BR, Grade C
Comes off the books after this season

Brandon Belt, 1B, BL, Grade C P>
Way overpaid and will likely be platooned

Brandon Crawford, SS, BL, Grade C P>
See Posey and Belt, All will be gone in 2022

Mauricio Dubon, CF, BR, Grade C
Not much help with power but has some speed

Rotation

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Grade C+
 I'm not a fan, but it's a good park for him

Johnny Cueto, RHP, Grade C+
Last year of his contract at age 35

Anthony DeSclafani, RHP, Grade C
Easier park for him than in Cincinnati

Alex Wood, LHP, Grade C+
Former Dodger has to stay healthy to earn his role

Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Grade C
I've always looked for more and have been disappointed

Bench

C Curt Casali, BR, Grade C
Looks like Joey Bart has to wait a while

INF/OF Darin Ruf, BR, Grade C-
Could be a platoon partner for Dickerson

3B Evan Longoria, BR, Grade C-
Will have to fight off La Stella

INF Wilmer Flores, BR, Grade C+
Might be a good utility option; could spell Crawford.

OF/1B Austin Slater, BR, Grade C 
Offers some protection at first base for Belt; could platoon

Beware the platoon potential for at least four left-handed hitting Giants. That will detract from their fantasy value. I have marked them with a P>. The Giants will shed the contracts of Cueto, Posey, Gausman, Belt, Crawford, DeSclafani, Sanchez, Wood and Salano after this year. That sets them up to be big players in next year's free-agent market. Look for them to be the hunt for elite players. For this year, they bide their time, play their games and look to rebuild in 2022 with new found payroll flexibility.

Heading Home

There is still time to let me know if you wish to be on the waiting list for Bernie on the Scene 10-team roto fantasy leagues. Let me know if you are interested by emailing me at BPleskoff@aol.com. I will advise you from there.

• Spring training games have begun. We may see some shortened games as pitchers ramp up. COVID concerns remains, and we will experience guys testing positive and breaking the protocols. Plan accordingly, with as much depth as possible, as we never know which guys will be sidelined with the virus. But it'll happen.

• One of the great stories of the coming season will be the ability of the usual stars being able to put their horrible 2020 seasons in the rear view mirror. What will we get from Christian Yelich, or J.D. Martinez? Does Francisco Lindor rebound from what was an off year for him? How will Nolan Arenado do in St. Louis? And the list goes on and on. That's why I think the coming season could be great to watch. Watch for conditioning reports from spring training.

And I advise to watch for hamstring injuries, sore arms and elbows, calf strains.

• Thanks for following me on twitter @BerniePleskoff and for reading my work at Forbes.com.