MLB Betting: Michael Rathburn's Best Bets

MLB Betting: Michael Rathburn's Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Yesterday 3-0

Season 9-3 (6-0 last 6)

Riding a six-game winning streak as a bettor is a great feeling, but just know that it can reverse very quickly, so let's continue to grind for alternative bets tonight and keep winning.

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies 7:05 pm EST

Adrian Houser vs. Vince Velasquez -115, 8.5   

The Brewers are without Christian Yelich, Omar Narvaez, Keston Hiura, Lorenzo Cain. This leaves the worst lineup going tonight against a high strikeout, but high-risk pitcher in Vince Velasquez. The Brewers' bottom half of the lineup is where VV should do some major damage tonight.  

Velasquez has only gone four innings in each of his last two starts but averages 1.5 strikeouts per inning this year.  The play here is he can get to six innings and potentially eight strikeouts. I think even if he goes five innings we get seven strikeouts.

The Bet – Velasquez over 6.5 strikeouts for 1 RW buck

NOTE Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain were activated and are in the lineup.

Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland A's 9:40 pm EST

Steven Matz Vs. Frankie Montas -115, 8.5

We head over to the trusty Rotowire Top Prop Bets for our third play today and find Frankie Montas under 6.5 strikeouts. RW has him projected for only 4.7 (+38% edge). Montas has only exceeded 6.5 strikeouts once this year and that was against the lowly Detroit Tigers who have a 31% strikeout rate which is dead last in baseball. Now he gets a loaded Blue Jays lineup – with George Springer back – that only strikes out 23% of the time (10th lowest).

The biggest thing with this bet is that Montas could get lit up and be out of the game early and we get an easy win.

BET – Frankie Montas under 6.5 strikeouts (+105) for 2 RW buck

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs 7:40 pm EST

Walker Buehler -190, 8.5 vs. Kyle Hendricks 

I very rarely lay more than -150 in a baseball game, so taking Buehler on the road is not an option tonight. But when you have a serious mismatch in pitching, the next place to look is the run line.

Buehler has been incredible this year with 31 strikeouts and only 2 walks, with a 3.16 era and 0.96 WHIP. He did get roughed up against the Reds last time out, but they have been one of the best hitting teams in baseball so far. Hendricks has been one of the biggest disappointments with a 1-3 record, 7.54 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Out of the five starts, two of them have been serviceable but he got torched in the other three. Hendricks has allowed 10 home runs in just 22 innings.

Another tip for betting run lines is noting the total which is 8.5. If it was under 8 I would not lay the -1.5 as it represents a higher percentage of the total. (1.5 / 8.5 vs. 1.5 / 8 ).  Also, the money line has moved from -165 to -190 and is climbing.

The Bet – Dodgers -1.5 runs +155 for 1 RW buck

RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
MLB Betting: Wednesday Best Bets
MLB Betting: Wednesday Best Bets
FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Targets
FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Targets
DraftKings MLB: Wednesday Breakdown
DraftKings MLB: Wednesday Breakdown
Fantasy Baseball Injury Report: Twins All Star to Miss Time
Fantasy Baseball Injury Report: Twins All Star to Miss Time
MLB Betting: Tuesday Best Bets
MLB Betting: Tuesday Best Bets
RW Tutorials: MLB DFS Lineup Optimizer Tutorial
RW Tutorials: MLB DFS Lineup Optimizer Tutorial