Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer
30-Year-Old PitcherSP
Los Angeles Dodgers
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Bauer took home the NL Cy Young after dominating in the short season and leading the Reds to their first postseason appearance since 2013. He did it with a nod and a wink -- the spin rates on all his pitches jumped dramatically, something he'd previously shown he could do with the help of a foreign substance. Knowing MLB could not single him out, Bauer leveled the playing field and ascended back to the elite ranks after a miserable two-month run with Cincinnati to close out 2019. Bauer has been at the forefront of the Driveline Baseball and pitch-design evolution, and he's lethal with his five-pitch mix when things are working right. There's no reason to think he will put himself back at a disadvantage, and if you want him you will have to bet the 2018/2020 version is the real Bauer. He has talked at length about wanting to start every fourth day; perhaps we could see that for a month, but not six months. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#16
ADP
$Signed a three-year, $102 million contract with the Dodgers in February of 2021. Contract includes opt-outs clauses after 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Solid despite loss
PLos Angeles Dodgers
May 9, 2021
Bauer (3-2) allowed two earned runs on four hits and two walks while striking out nine across six innings, taking the loss to the Angels on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
Bauer struggled to get through the third inning, issuing two walks and surrendering three hits to allow two runs to score. In the other five innings, he allowed just one single. He is a high-strikeout threat with a 12.0 K/9, which is third-highest in the National League. The 30-year-old has a 2.50 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 50.1 innings. The only concerning aspect of his game this season is his 1.4 HR/9. His next start is likely to come on the road against Miami next weekend.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
103
Last 10 Games
103
Last 5 Games
103
How many pitches does Trevor Bauer generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Trevor Bauer generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-12%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-21%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-13%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .218 661 184 57 128 20 6 33
Since 2019vs Right .192 721 236 56 124 30 5 18
2021vs Left .172 95 28 6 15 2 1 5
2021vs Right .136 98 39 8 12 1 0 3
2020vs Left .170 146 55 10 23 2 1 8
2020vs Right .146 132 45 7 18 2 2 1
2019vs Left .247 420 101 41 90 16 4 20
2019vs Right .216 491 152 41 94 27 3 14
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-10%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-52%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-38%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-8%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 3.81 1.05 146.1 7 9 0 11.9 2.9 1.8
Since 2019Away 3.41 1.12 190.0 12 10 0 10.8 3.1 1.0
2021Home 1.38 0.62 13.0 2 0 0 12.5 1.4 1.4
2021Away 2.89 0.88 37.1 1 2 0 11.8 2.9 1.4
2020Home 2.18 0.79 33.0 1 2 0 12.8 1.9 1.6
2020Away 1.35 0.80 40.0 4 2 0 11.9 2.3 0.7
2019Home 4.66 1.19 100.1 4 7 0 11.5 3.4 2.0
2019Away 4.31 1.30 112.2 7 6 0 10.0 3.5 1.0
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Stat Review
How does Trevor Bauer compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.79
 
K/9
12.0
 
BB/9
2.5
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
93.9 mph
 
ERA
2.50
 
WHIP
0.81
 
BABIP
.202
 
GB/FB
0.76
 
Left On Base
87.2%
 
Exit Velocity
80.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.5%
 
Spin Rate
2867 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
20.8%
 
Swinging Strike
13.0%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Trevor Bauer
FanDuel MLB: Sunday Targets
3 days ago
Chris Morgan points out Sam Hentges is projected to make his starting debut for the Indians, so Cincy hitters like Nick Castellanos should be able to take advantage.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Aces Not High
4 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching, as Shane Bieber is one of the few aces with two starts.
Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers
8 days ago
With the minors set to open, Jesse Siegel is following some of the top names and expects big things from a catcher in the Orioles organization.
Bernie on the Scene: Outfielder Trade Targets
9 days ago
Bernie Pleskoff analyzes outfield trade targets, including the Brewers' Avisail Garcia.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: deGromination
11 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitchers, including Aaron Nola with a pair of favorable opponents.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Bauer has been at the forefront of innovation with pitch design and data-driven player development, having worked closely with Driveline Baseball in recent years. He's also outspoken and wears his heart on his sleeve. His July 28 tantrum in Kansas City -- when he chucked the ball out to center after a poor showing -- was the last straw for the Indians, who traded Bauer to the Reds days later. His 10-start run with Cincinnati was a disaster, with Bauer posting a 6.39 ERA and nearly two HR/9. Year over year, his GB% was down seven percentage points and his walk rate ticked up, but Bauer continued to miss bats at a great clip, finishing 18th among qualified starters with a 27.8 K%. The fact is Bauer still has just one year with a sub-4.00 ERA on his record. He will be motivated to get right in a walk year and we've seen the upside, but taking Bauer inside the first five rounds requires a leap of faith.
Bauer may prepare in a bit of a quirky way, but his commitment to his craft paid off in a big way in 2018, as he was one of the best pitchers in the league through four months. A stress fracture in his lower leg cost him almost six weeks, with him returning in an abbreviated role to close out September. He finished second in the majors, behind only Jacob deGrom, with a 2.44 FIP and finished in the top seven in K% (30.8) and K-BB% (22.9). His 95-mph fastball is a plus pitch, but what separates Bauer from most other starters is that he has four more plus pitches (slider, curveball, changeup, cutter) in his bag of tricks, so hitters are almost always at his mercy. Even with the missed time, he finished ninth among starting pitchers in earned auction dollars ($22), so if the skills growth is real and he is able to top 200 innings for the first time in his career, he could finish as a top-five fantasy starter in 2019.
Bauer hasn't yet delivered on the frontline-starter potential many saw in him as a prospect, but with Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and AL wins leader Carlos Carrasco leading the pitching staff, the Indians only asked the right-hander to be a serviceable mid-rotation arm last season. The 27-year-old did exactly that while submitting his best season, going 17-9 and posting a career-high 10.0 K/9 rate that ranked 13th among qualified starters. Bauer found success by streamlining his repertoire, using his four-seam fastball or curveball nearly 70 percent of the time, which had positive effects on his oft-shaky command. Even so, Bauer still had issues with home runs and working deep into starts, and until he corrects those flaws, he's unlikely to offer much assistance in ERA and WHIP. Bauer's pedigree gives him a better chance than most to make the jump to ace-level starter, but his counting stats are already useful for fantasy owners even if this is his ceiling.
Bauer hasn't delivered on the potential associated with being a No. 3 overall pick, but he's becoming a productive major league starter. His pedigree places a burden of expectation on Bauer. Any successful run from Bauer prompts a contingent of his backers to believe it's the beginning of his ascent, when usually it's just a solid run for what may well be just an average pitcher. That he chopped anything off his ERA while the league scoring environment surged represents a modicum of growth, but the only bankable improvement in his profile was a 10-percent jump in groundball rate, to a career-high 49 percent. While the overall results have been essentially static in his three full-ish seasons (he had cameos in 2012 and 2013), he has at least added innings year over year. He isn't a completely finished product with just 552.1 major league innings under his belt, but expectations should be kept realistic.
Bauer held onto most of the gains he made in 2014, but did not really take any meaningful step forward in his second season as a member of the starting rotation. He is still too willing to walk hitters (4.0 BB/9 and a league-leading 79 walks in 176 innings), which is further compounded by his issues with the longball (1.2 HR/9, 23 homers allowed). To his credit, Bauer misses bats at a high clip (8.7 K/9) and does not have any platoon issues (.735 OPS vs. righties, .731 OPS vs. lefties in his career). In a somewhat surprising move, Bauer was demoted to a bullpen role late in camp, as Cody Anderson and Josh Tomlin both outpitched him in spring training. Bauer could be a devastating reliever if he willingly accepts the role, but without a spot in the rotation, he can be avoided for now in standard leagues. He will be the obvious option to jump back into the rotation if one of the Indians' five starters suffers an injury.
Bauer is a good example of why the fantasy community’s expectations of prospects desperately need to be dialed down across the board. The former No. 3 overall pick put up some gaudy strikeout numbers upon entering pro ball, but walked way too many batters to find steady upper minors success, let alone big league success. His flaws were exacerbated in a couple of tiny MLB samples in 2012-13 as he walked 29 while striking out just 28 in 33 innings. Even with the appropriate small sample size caveats in place, it was still a disaster and indicative of why he wasn't earning a chance to fatten up the sample. Still just 23 entering last year, he had a major growth spurt skills-wise as he finally stopped walking every batter in sight and actually strung together some major league success in the summer. It’s all relative, though, because his 9.1% walk rate marked a huge improvement for him, but it was still the 10th-highest among the 98 starters who logged at least 150 innings. Speculate in deep leagues, but keep expectations reasonable.
Bauer was a disaster in four spot starts for the Indians and was not much better in 22 starts at Triple-A Columbus last season. He was passed over for a September callup despite already being on the 40-man roster, which pretty much sums up his season. He's never posted jaw-dropping numbers in the minors despite lots of prospect ink and a nice strikeout rate, as his lack of command has always been his undoing. There's a lot less to like here than there was 12 months ago when the Indians acquired him from the Diamondbacks, but the power arm offers hope that he will turn things around. Bauer will need to impress mightily in spring training to earn a rotation spot, so he's likely headed back to Triple-A to attempt to put the pieces back together.
Bauer earned Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors with the D-Backs as he carved up Double-A and Triple-A hitters to the tune of a combined 157:61 K:BB in 130.1 innings around a four-start audition with Arizona. Walks were an issue at his minor league stops, but Bauer couldn't find the plate during his brief time in the big leagues, and he seemed to draw the ire of some teammates and coaches with generally a stubborn demeanor. If he's able to improve his fastball command, there is reason to believe that Bauer will still become a very good big league starter, but he will continue his development in Cleveland after being acquired by the Indians in December. With less starting pitching depth around him in his new organization, it is much easier to envision a scenario where he breaks camp as a member of the Tribe's rotation.
After a dominant career at UCLA, Bauer was the third overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft and the D-Backs wasted little time getting him acclimated to pro ball. Although he did not reach Arizona in September, Bauer worked 25.2 innings between High-A Visalia and Double-A Mobile while compiling an impressive 43:12 K:BB over seven starts. Bauer has drawn comparisons to Tim Lincecum, and he profiles to be the ace in a very good young Arizona rotation for years to come. The 21-year-old is extremely polished and offers a five-pitch arsenal led by a plus-plus curveball. Even if he doesn't break camp with the D-Backs, he should be up for good in 2012.
More Fantasy News
No-decision Tuesday
PLos Angeles Dodgers
May 4, 2021
Bauer didn't factor into the decision in Game 2 of Tuesday's doubleheader against the Cubs. He gave up one run on four hits and four walks while fanning seven across 4.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Unlikely to make short-rest start
PLos Angeles Dodgers
May 4, 2021
Manager Dave Roberts said the Dodgers will probably treat one of their weekend games against the Angels as a bullpen day, meaning Bauer is unlikely to make a start on short rest Saturday, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Could pitch on short rest
PLos Angeles Dodgers
May 3, 2021
Bauer will start Game 2 of Tuesday's doubleheader against the Cubs and could pitch on short rest in the future, Juan Toribio of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Complete-game loss
PLos Angeles Dodgers
April 29, 2021
Bauer (3-1) was the tough-luck loser Thursday against Milwaukee, throwing eight innings and allowing two runs on four hits and two walks with six strikeouts in a 2-1 defeat.
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Notches third win
PLos Angeles Dodgers
April 25, 2021
Bauer (3-0) earned the win against San Diego on Saturday, throwing six innings and allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits and no walks while striking out nine.
ANALYSIS
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