Casey Mize

26-Year-Old PitcherSP

Detroit Tigers

2024 Stats

W-L

0-0

ERA

4.11

WHIP

1.17

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

Unlock Our Projections

2024 Fantasy Outlook

When healthy, Mize has looked like a solid MLB pitcher. However, an elbow injury cut his 2022 campaign short after only two starts, and then he missed all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. Back in 2021, Mize posted a 3.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 118 strikeouts across 150.1 innings in his first full season as starter for Detroit. The 26-year-old should have a rotation spot locked up heading into 2024, though the Tigers will undoubtedly limit his workload, and it's fair to expect some rust. Mize was drafted first overall back in 2018, so the talent is certainly there, and fantasy managers will be keeping a watchful eye on how he looks early in the season. However, the best bet for now is to temper expectations and probably not count on Mize for consistent production right away. He's still only made 39 starts at the MLB level, so even if he wasn't returning from a major surgery, the young righty would probably be a volatile option anyways. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#445

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 220

DOB 5/1/1997

Born Springville, AL

College Auburn

Drafted 1st Rd 2018 DET

Delivers quality start

PDetroit Tigers

April 16, 2024

Mize didn't factor in the decision Tuesday against the Rangers after he struck out six and allowed two runs on five hits and no walks over six innings.

ANALYSIS
It was an impressive performance from Mize, who kept the defending champs scoreless until the fifth inning, when Texas scratched across two runs on four hits. The right-hander generated just seven swinging strikes but still produced a season-high six strikeouts. After missing all of last season while recovering from Tommy John and back surgeries, Mize appears to have settled in through three starts with a 4.11 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 12:3 K:BB in 15.1 innings.

Read More News

Pitching Stats

Loading Pitching Stats...

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2024 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

2023 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

2022 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

2021 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

2020 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

Minor League Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Loading Minor League Pitching Game Log...

Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Casey Mize generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Casey Mize generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-70%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-73%

BAA vs LHP

2023

No Stats

2022

-66%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.114	49	7	4	5	1	0	1
Since 2022vs Right	.383	61	9	1	23	2	3	1
2024vs Left	.103	32	6	2	3	1	0	0
2024vs Right	.375	33	6	1	12	1	0	1
2023vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022vs Left	.133	17	1	2	2	0	0	1
2022vs Right	.393	28	3	0	11	1	3	0
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-10%

ERA on Road

2024

-38%

ERA at Home

2023

No Stats

2022

-50%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	4.91	1.09	11.0	0	1	0	6.5	0.0	0.8
Since 2022Away	4.40	1.47	14.1	0	0	0	5.0	3.1	0.6
2024Home	3.00	0.83	6.0	0	0	0	9.0	0.0	0.0
2024Away	4.82	1.39	9.1	0	0	0	5.8	2.9	1.0
2023Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022Home	7.20	1.40	5.0	0	1	0	3.6	0.0	1.8
2022Away	3.60	1.60	5.0	0	0	0	3.6	3.6	0.0
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Casey Mize compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

4.00

K/9

7.0

BB/9

1.8

HR/9

0.6

Fastball

95.4 mph

ERA

4.11

WHIP

1.17

BABIP

.309

GB/FB

1.93

Left On Base

66.3%

Swinging Strike

8.7%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Casey Mize Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Pitching Stats

Loading Advanced Pitching Stats...

Defensive Stats

Loading MLB Defensive Stats...

Stats Vs Today's Lineup

Want more matchup stats?

View Casey Mize vs. Batter Stats

Loading Matchup Stats...

Tigers Depth Chart

Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.

Subscribe Now

Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Casey Mize See More

Spencer Strider, Shohei Ohtani and the State of Pitcher Injuries

2 days ago

How new is the rise in pitcher injuries, and what's causing it? And will we ever get back to a time when those injuries are less common?

AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

3 days ago

Erik Siegrist looks over the free-agent options in the American League as the Jackson Holliday era begins in Baltimore.

Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Fun in Small Samples

4 days ago

Todd Zola presents the weekly pitcher rankings, and with all the pitcher injuries it’s almost fitting that Tyler Glasnow is leading the rankings.

Weekly Pitcher Rankings: To Stream or Not To Stream

11 days ago

Zack Wheeler headlines the Weekly Pitcher Rankings, presented by Todd Zola.

MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Tuesday, April 2

15 days ago

Tuesday's top MLB DFS options on FanDuel include Kyle Tucker, who's off to a strong start to the season in the heart of a potent Astros lineup.

Latest Fantasy Rumors

Rain won't spoil 2024 debut?

PDetroit Tigers

April 2, 2024

Mize may be able to make his season debut against the Mets as scheduled Tuesday, as Mets officials expect there to be a window to play despite ongoing inclement weather, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

ANALYSIS
Mize will be making his first appearance in the big leagues since 2022 after he spent last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. New York is getting a fair amount of rain Tuesday, so there's a chance the 26-year-old's 2024 debut will be pushed back, though it appears they'll attempt to get the game in.

See All MLB Rumors

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

After a promising 2021 campaign, Mize seemed primed for big things in 2022, but he only made two starts before getting shut down due to an elbow injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June and now seems likely to miss most if not all of 2023. It's a big blow for the Tigers, who drafted Mize first overall in 2018. His MLB debut season in 2020 wasn't great, as he posted 6.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 28.1 innings. However, given a longer look in 2021, Mize pitched much better. He tallied a 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 150.1 innings, though his 7.06 K/9 and 4.71 FIP suggested he wasn't overly dominant. Still, it was a good campaign overall, and given Mize's prospect pedigree, it's fair to think that he has another level yet to reach. That will just have to wait until 2024 and beyond, so fantasy managers can ignore Mize in standard leagues, though he still has plenty of upside in keeper and dynasty formats.

After a disappointing 2020, albeit only 28.1 innings, Mize rebounded to exhibit why the Tigers used the first overall pick in 2018 to secure his services. OK, he wasn't dominant, but he teased his potential and he's embarking on just his age-25 season. Detroit did a good job managing Mize's workload, giving him extra rest down the stretch. After compiling 150.1 frames last season, the kid gloves should be off. Mize needs to miss more bats as a 19.3 K% won't get it done, at least not if he's going to be a front-of-the-rotation guy. He throws five pitches with only his four-season fastball and slider topping a 10% swinging strike rate, and just barely at that. Five pitches are a lot to work with, so it's too early to give up on more whiffs. Maybe Mize's future is a mid-rotation innings eater. The cost to find out is reasonable and there should be opportunities to stream in a weak division.

Mize's rookie season was a disaster from a results standpoint, but at least he is healthy and his stuff is intact. If he were in a different organization, say Cleveland, he would be advised to lean on his filthy trio of offspeed pitches while cutting his fourseamer and sinker usage from a combined 52 percent to around 40 percent. Whether Mize and the Tigers will go that route remains to be seen, but he currently has the pitches to have sustained success, he just needs to optimize his pitch usage. He also struggled to throw his fastball for strikes, which led to a 9.8 BB% -- almost double the 5.6 BB% he logged in 2019 at Double-A. Improving his fastball command would help greatly if Mize is to have a post-hype breakout in his second season. We should never expect pitching prospects to shove as rookies, yet recency bias still tends to seep in when one understandably pitches like a rookie.

During Mize's final year at Auburn, he had a 2.25 ERA in his first 84 innings and a 7.01 ERA in his final 30 innings. In his first full year in pro ball, he had a 0.92 ERA in his first 78 innings and a 6.61 ERA in his final 31.1 innings. The first overall pick in 2018 has a very deep arsenal -- he added another breaking ball last year -- and his plus command allows him to be very efficient with his pitches. However, we're waiting for the 22-year-old righty to take the final step in his development and show that he can handle a MLB starter's workload. He missed a month in the middle of the year with a shoulder strain and was ominously shut down 16 days prior to the end of Double-A Erie's season. We know Mize can dominate minor-league hitters over the first few months of a season. His true test in 2020 will be pitching well over the final three months, and that test should come in the big-league rotation.

There was not much drama at 1-1 in 2018, as Mize had been rumored there for months and was indeed selected by Detroit, garnering a class-high $7.5 million bonus. A 6-foot-3 righty with a workhorse 220-pound frame, Mize has a deep, complex arsenal. He sits at 94-95 mph with his fastball, touching 96 in pro ball and 97 in college. His 88-mph splitter essentially works as his changeup, and is seen as his best pitch, grading anywhere from plus to double-plus, depending on when it was seen. He also throws a mid-80s cutter and a low-80s slider -- both of which will flash plus. Mize is known as a strike thrower with the potential for plus command, giving him true frontline upside. He battled arm issues in 2017 but stayed healthy in 2018 and was shut down at High-A in mid-August after reaching his innings limit. The Tigers will assign him to either High-A or Double-A. If he stays healthy he should be the first starting pitcher from his class to reach the majors.

More Fantasy News

Solid in no-decision

PDetroit Tigers

April 9, 2024

Mize allowed two runs on five hits and a walk over five innings during Tuesday's 5-3 win at Pittsburgh. He struck out two and did not factor in the decision.