Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Los Angeles Chargers.
The system/scheme
• The Chargers ran plays at one of the very slowest paces in the league last year. They did this not only when they had the lead, but also in game-neutral situations. That said, they were in the middle of the league in pace of plays run in 2017, and Ken Whisenhunt is still calling the plays, so there's a possibility that last year was an anomaly, but I don't think so- they were using it as a recipe to win football games and it worked exceptionally well. This potential volume has the possibility to limit the upside of all players on this offense.
• The coaches embraced analytics last year and now they throw heavily on early downs, which explains why their offense was so efficient last year. Look for them to run plenty of 12 personnel with Hunter Henry, Virgil Green, and assuming he's back, Antonio Gates at times. This should allow them to force defenses in base personnel, which should not only slow the pass rush, but all Philip Rivers to exploit beneficial matchups.
• Whether Melvin Gordon reports to the team or not, they will continue to be balanced on offense, and they didn't seem to miss a beat when Gordon missed time with a late-season injury last year.
Metrics
• Austin Ekeler ran an 84th-percentile 40-yard-dash along while possessing 95th-percentile burst and 86th-percentile agility, so the big plays we've seen from him are no fluke. It's just that he doesn't have the size to be a full-time RB.
• Justin Jackson has 86th-percentile burst and 96th-percentile agility to go with a 73rd-percentile 40-yard-dash time. However, at about 190 pounds, he's one of the lightest RBs in the league, so it's most likely he functions as a receiving and change-of-pace RB.
Positive Spin
• The team doesn't run plays at a snail's pace, and they end up being closer to league average. That would allow for enough pass attempts to make Mike Williams and Hunter Henry strong fantasy performers along with Keenan Allen. Also, Gordon doesn't hold out, and as a result, defenses won't be able to be as aggressive as they'd like.
Negative Spin
• The defense, which was very good last year, is even better this year, which leads to the offense consistently playing with the lead. Predictably, the offense can work on controlling the clock my taking their time running plays- this ends up being good for the Chargers, as they continue to win games, but bad for fantasy owners who need volume from the offensive weapons.
My advice-
• Rivers simply doesn't have to throw the ball as often as he did in the past- he's an amazing NFL QB, but in terms of fantasy, he's merely a streaming or two-QB league option.
• Melvin Gordon doesn't have a lot of motivation to show up if the Chargers don't pay him, and as long as he reports by Week 10, he'll get his accrued year toward free agency. If he doesn't report by fantasy draft day, I'd only use the second- or third-round pick on him in a best ball league with a pig payout, and that's just for the sake of upside. Otherwise, I will select a more stable option in that area of the draft.
• As long as Gordon is holding out, Ekeler's ADP will be too high for my liking. Knowing that he'll be in a timeshare with Justin Jackson, I would need Ekeler to fall to the ninth round, and that's not likely to happen.
* Justin Jackson is worth a gamble late in drafts, but like Ekeler, he'll probably go too early. Remember, if/when Gordon returns, Jackson will become a third-stringer and he may have no fantasy value. If drafting him for short-term help, he makes more sense.
• Keenan Allen is the one player who should be immune to surrounding circumstances, such as pace of play, since he's been a target hog whenever healthy. That said, the potential for low-play volume does take away some potential for big upside.
• Mike Williams has the ability to be a star, but with Hunter Henry coming back, Williams won't likely dominate the red-zone targets on his own, but his ADP is accounting for him to break out and be a WR2. Between the potential for the shared red-zone work and a slow pace of play, his ADP is a bit too rich for my liking.
• Hunter Henry should be a full-time player, now that Antonio Gates isn't the player he once was, and just by him being on the field regularly, he should easily be a mid-range TE1. I'd draft him at any point after five TEs are off the board- before his injury, he was one of the most-efficient receiving TEs in the league, and even if the team doesn't run a ton of plays, he should make the most of his chances.