ADP Analysis: Restraint on Ryquell Armstead

I'm not sure it's true that all good things must come to an end, but I do know this ADP Analysis series is headed to the graveyard ... at least until next summer. It's time to switch the ol' brain over to in-season mode, which means writing articles on matchups, streaming and DFS, among other things.

Anyway, our final edition of ADP Analysis won't include anything on the Tampa Bay or Washington backfields, as there hasn't been enough time to collect significant data since the Leonard Fournette signing and the Adrian Peterson release. Fortunately, there's plenty of other stuff to dive into, including the impact of Fournette's absence back in Jacksonville.

(All ADP data pulled from BB10s, comparing Aug. 24-26 to Aug. 31 - Sept. 2)

ADP Moving Up ⬆️

QB Gardner Minshew

QB23, ADP 167.0 ➡ QB21, ADP 159.8

It took a long time for us to get here, but it appears all the value has finally been sucked out. Minshew's recent ADP is right in line with my QB rankings, properly accounting for both the upside and downside. Some have interpreted the Fournette trade as bad news for Minshew, but it just confirms what we should've suspected all along — 2020 will be dedicated to evaluating Minshew and his receiving options. In any case, Fournette was a minus on his passing snaps, so I can't imagine his absence will hurt Minshew.

RB Zack Moss

RB36, ADP 87.2 ➡ RB33, ADP 79.8

This continues a trend from last week, with Moss once again going up, while Devin Singletary (RB25, ADP 53.1 ➡ RB28, ADP 57.0) continues to drop. Maybe I'm just not seeing clearly through my Singletary-colored glasses, but it feels like this is (another) overcorrection. Singletary was really good last year, and I still think that's more important than Moss doing well in practice. There  obviously will be some kind of timeshare, but Singletary is the better bet to pile up catches and get the majority of snaps.

RB Latavius Murray

RB41, ADP 104.2 ➡ RB39, ADP 97.0

I have a hard time imagining the Saints actually pulling the trigger on a Kamara trade, given that they've already done nearly everything possible to go all-in for this season. A deal only makes sense if it includes at least one player who can help them this year, and I don't imagine they'll get enough to justify trading their star running back. However, all the trade/holdout talk may have distracted from what could ultimately prove to be an even bigger issue — the back injury that inspired Kamara to receive an epidural injection. The Twitter doctors says it isn't cause for immediate panic, but it does add some fragility to Kamara's 2020 outlook, and it's arguably even more of a problem for dynasty owners. 

RB Ryquell Armstead

RB59, ADP 187.8 ➡ RB43, ADP 110.6 

Drafters have shown surprising restraint on Armstead in a post-Fournette world, rightly worrying that Devine Ozigbo and even James Robinson could be in the mix for early down work. With Chris Thompson already locked in on passing downs, Armstead has a medium-ceiling, low-floor type of feel to him. He's a solid pick in the 10th or 11th round, but I wouldn't reach in the ninth when there are high-upside handcuffs like Murray, Chase Edmonds and Alexander Mattison still available. (Ozigbo is now going at RB65, ADP 206.1.)

RB Chris Thompson

RB63, ADP 194.0 ➡ RB51, ADP 134.9

I'm as big of a Thompson fan as you'll find, and even I think this is an overreaction. Dude was already locked in for passing downs, and it's not like he'll be used as a grinder now that Fournette is out of the Jacksonville picture. Maybe the release hints at commitment to a pass-heavy offense, but that was probably already the case when the upcoming season seems to have no real purpose besides evaluating Gardner Minshew and other young players around him. Thompson has quickly gone from undervalued to overvalued, with drafters who foolishly ignored him before suddenly getting way too excited. Such is the nature of the beast, I suppose?

RB Darrel Williams

RB68, ADP 215.9 ➡ RB64, ADP 203.3

Meanwhile, DeAndre Washington sunk from RB62 to RB66, completing his fall from a very temporary grace. Reports coming out of KC training camp suggest Williams has been the clear No. 2 back, though I think we can assume a committee in the event of a Clyde Edwards-Helaire injury. Coach Andy Reid trusts Williams to block and catch passes, but the 2018 UDFA doesn't have the speed or agility to be more than adequate as a runner. He at least appears secure in his roster spot, whereas Washington may not even make the team (Darwin Thompson could stick as the No. 3 back instead).

WR Deebo Samuel

WR39, ADP 86.5 ➡ WR34, ADP 78.9

Recent reports suggest Samuel could be back for Week 1, so it makes sense his ADP is rising. However, I believe he never fell far enough in the first place, considering his Jones fracture comes with significant risk of re-injury. Plus, there's still a chance he won't be a full-time player when he first takes the field, and it's also possible he won't be quite as explosive as the guy we saw late last year. Samuel is still a solid pick in shallow leagues where you're drafting him as a backup, but there are better options in the same ADP range for leagues where you actually care about his September production.

WR Sterling Shepard

WR49, ADP 116.8 ➡ WR46, ADP 108.1

Still one of the best bargains at any position.

WR DeSean Jackson

WR55, ADP 135.5 ➡ WR49, ADP 116.4

Jackson is the last man standing in the Philadelphia receiving corps, and he'll probably be a good pick even at the new price as long as he plays at least 12 games. I have no problem putting him in a starting lineup for a Week 1 matchup with Washington, and we know he'll have some spike games throughout the year if he isn't too hurt to play. (Jalen Reagor is expected to miss at least Week 1 and possibly longer with a shoulder injury.)

ADP Moving Down ⬇️

QB Carson Wentz

QB9, ADP 103.6 ➡ QB10, ADP 116.3

In addition to Reagor missing the early part of the year, Wentz has now lost two starting linemen to season-ending injuries, with LT Andre Dillard (biceps) joining stud RG Brandon Brooks (Achilles). The Eagles responded to the Brooks injury by re-signing future Hall of Famer Jason Peters, who was then asked to play right guard after spending his whole career at left tackle. Coach Doug Pederson suggested Peters will stay at guard, leaving the blindside a major question. The Eagles still have elite players at center (Jason Kelce) and right tackle (Lane Johnson), but the overall quality of the line could drop from "excellent" to merely "above average." Best-ball drafters probably care more about the Reagor injury, but the O-line stuff has more impact on Wentz's outlook, assuming the rookie receiver is back by October.

RB Le'Veon Bell

RB21, ADP 38.5 ➡ RB22, ADP 45.1

Bell and the Jets are a match made in heaven, both good for drama if nothing else. The running back continues to insist he's better than ever, while Brian Costello of the NY Post says Bell has been outplayed by both Frank Gore and La'Mical Perine (ankle) at training camp. Costello and ESPN's Rich Cimini both said the first-team split in camp was about 60/40 in Bell's favor, whereas most drafters probably were hoping for 80/20. Of course, that doesn't mean it'll be 60/40 in games, so this could just be a bunch of worthless discussion. Whatever the case, it's having an impact on Bell's ADP, though not enough to truly tempt me. At risk of sounding like a broken record ... I don't know why people are drafting all these busted-up, over-the-hill RBs in Rounds 3-5 when there are so many dynamite WRs available.

RB David Montgomery

RB27, ADP 55.2 ➡ RB31, ADP 68.4

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like the appeal with Montgomery is that you know he'll get a bunch of carries, so you can put him in as your RB2 to start the season and hope you come up with something better along the way. Either that, or there's some upside scenario that my small brain isn't able to process. Anyway, the plan doesn't work when he's injured and can't play. I have no idea why anyone would draft him in an ADP range where players like Tyler Boyd and Darren Waller are available at other positions ... RB Fever, Baby!

WR Breshad Perriman

WR56, ADP 141.0 ➡ WR58, ADP 151.0

Perriman continues to miss practice with a swollen knee, an issue that coach Adam Gase hasn't exactly sounded optimistic about. The Jets aren't saying it's serious, but Gase did say that Perriman has been stuck in a cycle where there's a minor setback every time he appears to be making progress. Even if he's cleared for the season opener, Perriman may have to manage his knee all season. Then again, the putrid state of the Jets' receiving corps makes it possible for a one-legged man to average seven targets per game.

Other Notes

• Alvin Kamara's ADP dropped from 4.3 to 4.9, while Derrick Henry went from 7.5 to 6.5. It seems Kamara's holdout is inspiring more people to take Henry or Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP 6.7) with the fourth overall pick. However, Dalvin Cook for some reason dropped from 5.9 to 6.6 ... I guess people are starting to worry a little more about the lack of progress in his contract negotiations?
• Benny Snell moved up from RB66 (ADP 211.0) to RB62 (ADP 198.8). This is similar to the Darrel Williams and DeAndre Washington situation, with the guy who had more early hype  (Anthony McFarland, RB69) failing to usurp an incumbent. Pittsburgh beat reporters seem to agree that Snell is solidly the No. 2 back.
• Tyrell Williams (shoulder) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday evening, so he was still expected to play for most of the timeframe this ADP analysis covers. However, if we look at results from only Wednesday and Thursday, we see Bryan Edwards moving from WR71 (ADP 188.9) to WR67 (ADP 169.3). Gains have been much smaller for Henry Ruggs (WR48, ADP 113.7 ➡ WR48, ADP 111.1) and Hunter Renfrow (WR70, ADP 183.3 ➡ WR69, ADP 175.4). Tight end Darren Waller is the only lock for more than five targets per week, but Ruggs and Edwards both offer substantial upside if the volume is there. Edwards' prospect profile is that of a top-50 pick in most drafts.
• Leonard Fournette's signing with the Bucs wasn't reported until late Wednesday, so our analysis is limited to a sample of 13 drafts from Thursday. It's a sample that shows Fournette at RB19, ADP 31.1, which is far too early for my liking. He should lead the team in carries, but Ronald Jones still will be involved for at least the early part of the season, while LeSean McCoy is expected to handle passing downs. While the TD upside is intriguing in Tampa, it's hard to see Fournette taking more than 250 or so touches this year. Meanwhile, Ronald Jones dropped to RB35, ADP 86.5, which isn't as far as I would've expected. It seems both Jones and Fournette still have their fans, but I don't want either at the current prices. This looks like a three-man committee from where I'm sitting.
• Ian Thomas dropped from TE21 (ADP161.6) to TE23 (ADP 173.2), presumably due to a toe injury. There hasn't been any suggestion it's serious, so I recommend buying the dip while you can. Thomas has never impressed me, but the lack of TE depth in Carolina could leave him with a three-down role in an offense that figures to attempt 600-plus passes, i.e., he doesn't need to be all that good to be a solid TE2 or even low-end TE1.