NFL Game Previews: Bills-Patriots Matchup

Buffalo at New England (+7), o/u 46.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Say hello to your 2020 AFC East champions. The Bills are 4-0 since their bye, and they'd have an eight-game winning streak going if not for the Hail Murray back in Week 10. Their last five wins have all been by double digits too; they aren't just squeaking by, they are pummeling clubs, as both the offense and the defense have been locked in. Josh Allen's got an 8:1 TD:INT over the last three while chipping in two rushing scores, and Stefon Diggs leads the NFL in catches and is within 10 yards of DeAndre Hopkins for the receiving yards crown, with Travis Kelce lurking between them. For all the success Buffalo has had this season, though, and for how little they have to play for here (a sliver of a chance at a first-round bye), sweeping the season series from New England would be the perfect icing on the cake. The Pats haven't been total pushovers in their first year without Tom Brady, collecting wins over the Dolphins, Ravens and Cards, but they've lost consecutive games and the problems with the passing game that Brady was papering over have become inescapable. Bill Belichick is publicly toying with the idea of sitting Cam Newton in favor of Jarrett Stidham, but it likely won't matter much who's throwing passes to this motley crew of receivers. If the secondary can keep a lid on Allen, they've got a chance, but just like last time, they'll have to try and do it without Stephon Gilmore.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: RT Daryl Williams (questionable, groin)

NE injuries: RB Damien Harris (questionable, ankle), LT Jermaine Eluemunor (questionable, ankle), C David Andrews (questionable, calf), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, calf), K Nick Folk (questionable, back), LB Ja'Whaun Bantley (questionable, arm), CB Gilmore (IR, quad), CB J.C. Jackson (questionable, knee), CB Jonathan Jones (questionable, neck)

BUF DFS targets: Zack Moss $4,500 DK / $5,500 FD (NE 32nd in rushing DVOA, 27th in rushing yards per game allowed), Bills DST $3,400 DK / $4,800 FD (NE 24th in sack rate allowed, 31st in INT% allowed)

NE DFS targets: Jakobi Meyers $4,900 DK / $5,500 FD (BUF 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

BUF DFS fades: Dawson Knox $3,000 DK / $5,000 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. TE)

NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF is first in third-down conversions at 50.9 percent; NE is 18th in third-down defense at 41.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 NE, average score 25-16 NE, average margin of victory 12 points. NE had won seven straight meetings prior to BUF's 24-21 victory in Week 8

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Moss rings up 80 yards and a TD, while Devin Singletary adds 60 yards. Allen throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, both to Diggs (who tops 100 yards). Sony Michel runs for 60 yards, while James White adds 60 scrimmage yards. Newton starts but gets pulled at the half after leading the team to only one field goal. Stidham takes over in the third quarter and looks OK, tossing a TD to Meyers. Bills, 24-16

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (+1.5), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Colts can't clinch a playoff berth on their own this week, but a win plus some help elsewhere locks them in, and then there's the little matter of the AFC South title still to be decided — Indy needs to win one more game than Tennessee to claim it, and with the Titans headed to Lambeau, this is as good a spot as any to move ahead. Jonathan Taylor and T.Y. Hilton are both enjoying late-season heaters to help the club to three consecutive wins, and while the defense has sagged a little — the Colts haven't held an opponent to less than 20 points since Week 10 — the pieces are in place for this roster to make some noise in the postseason, assuming they make it. The Steelers are headed in the opposite direction. Losers of three straight, they haven't scored 20 points in a game in four weeks, and last week's upset at the hands of the Bengals was downright embarrassing. The defense remains stout, and Pittsburgh is still second in the league in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed, but the offense hasn't held up its end of the bargain. The running game has mostly sputtered, whether James Conner's been healthy or not, but the decline of Ben Roethlisberger has been far more damaging. He hasn't reached a 6.0 YPA in five straight games, averaging only 239.0 passing yards during that stretch with an 8:6 TD:INT, and while drops by his receivers haven't helped, he also hasn't been very good. Pittsburgh is at least already booked for a playoff appearance, but if he can't turn things around, the Steelers might yet squander the AFC North crown before making a quick exit in the wild-card round.

The Skinny

IND injuries: LT Anthony Castonzo, (questionable, knee)

PIT injuries: RB Anthony McFarland (questionable, illness), K Chris Boswell (questionable, groin)

IND DFS targets: T.Y. Hilton $5,500 DK / $6,400 FD (PIT 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)

PIT DFS targets: none

IND DFS fades: Philip Rivers $5,600 DK / $7,000 FD (PIT first in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed), Jonathan Taylor $7,300 DK / $7,500 FD (PIT third in rushing DVOA, t-second in rushing TDs allowed), Zach Pascal $3,800 DK / $5,100 FD (PIT fourth in DVOA vs. WR2), Michael Pittman $4,200 DK / $5,300 FD (PIT second in DVOA vs. WR3), Jack Doyle $2,800 DK / $4,700 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE)

PIT DFS fades: Eric Ebron $4,200 DK / $5,500 FD (IND fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: IND is 23rd in third-down conversions at 40.2 percent; PIT is third in third-down defense at 36.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Taylor manages 80 combined yards. Rivers throws for 250 yards and a TD to Hilton. Conner leads the PIT backfield with 60 yards. Roethlisberger throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. Steelers, 23-16

Atlanta (+10.5) at Kansas City, o/u 54.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Falcons' three-game losing streak has slid them into a top-5 pick in next year's draft, so their new GM could have an interesting decision to make, as most of the guaranteed money on Matt Ryan's contract is done after next season. In what's shaping up to be a very deep QB class, nabbing the 35-year-old Ryan's heir apparent and grooming him for a year behind the veteran could prove to be the best option for the long-term health of the franchise. It's not like Atlanta isn't already in evaluation mode — Ito Smith has moved ahead of Todd Gurley on the RB depth chart, in theory because of "performance" but in reality because Smith is the only one likely to be back in 2021. Kansas City, meanwhile, has that sweet first-round bye all but clinched. A Week 5 loss to the Raiders is the only blemish on the team's record, and in consecutive weeks they've hung more than 30 points on two of the stingiest defenses in the league in the Dolphins and Saints. New Orleans did snap Patrick Mahomes' streak of 300-yard performances at six, but against an Atlanta secondary that just got lit up like a Christmas tree by Tom Brady, he seems likely to start a new one, even if Tyreek Hill isn't 100 percent.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: WR Julio Jones (out, hamstring), LG James Carpenter (out, groin), C Alex Mack (out, concussion), CB Darqueze Dennard (out, quad)

KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (out, ankle/hip), WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, hamstring), DE Frank Clark (questionable, illness), LB Damien Wilson (out, knee)

ATL DFS targets: Ito Smith $4,000 DK / $5,000 FD (KC 30th in rushing DVOA, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

KC DFS targets: Patrick Mahomes $8,500 DK / $9,400 FD (ATL 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed)

ATL DFS fades: Calvin Ridley $8,500 DK / $8,700 FD (KC second in DVOA vs. WR1)

KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC is 17th in red-zone conversions at 59.3 percent; ATL is 28th in red-zone defense at 67.3 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, 10-11 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Smith gains 70 combined yards and a score. Ryan throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Russell Gage. Le'Veon Bell picks up 80 scrimmage yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns, finding Travis Kelce (who tops 100 yards) twice, and Hill and Sammy Watkins once each. Kansas City, 38-17

Chicago at Jacksonville (+7.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bears' playoff position is fairly dire. They need to win one more game than the Cards to sneak into a wild-card spot, and both teams have tough Week 17 opponents who are likely to have something to play for. Chicago is playing well, though — Mitchell Trubisky has led the team to 30 or more points in three consecutive weeks, David Montgomery is on a tear, and while the defense is banged up and hasn't been as fierce as it was earlier in the year, it's still capable of putting together strong efforts. The Jags got an early Christmas present from the Rams in Week 15, and now sit poised to claim the No. 1 pick in next year's draft. Jacksonville's had its own near-miss upsets lately, including an overtime loss to the Vikings a few weeks ago, but the Jags seemed to have wronged the ship again and are keeping their eyes on the prize, dropping their last two games by a combined score of 71-24. Gardner Minshew actually put up good numbers last week against the Ravens, but coach Doug Marrone's latest ploy to keep the offense from getting too frisky is to go back to Mike Glennon this week. Given that the defense has coughed up more than 400 total yards of offense in four consecutive games, Marrone probably doesn't have anything to worry about.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: WR Cordarrelle Patterson (questionable, knee), WR Allen Robinson (questionable, hamstring), DE Akiem Hicks (questionable, ankle), OLB Khalil Mack (questionable, shoulder), CB Jaylon Johnson (out, shoulder)

JAC injuries: RB James Robinson (questionable, ankle), WR Collin Johnson (out, hamstring), CB Sidney Jones (out, Achilles)

CHI DFS targets: Mitchell Trubisky $5,700 DK / $7,200 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 28th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed, 31st in TD% allowed)

JAC DFS targets: Keelan Cole $3,500 DK / $5,100 FD (CHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

CHI DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: DJ Chark $4,800 DK / $5,900 FD (CHI first in DVOA vs. WR1) 

Key stat: JAC is 16th in red-zone conversions at 59.5 percent; CHI is third in red-zone defense at 52.1 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Montgomery racks up 110 combined yards and a TD. Trubisky throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, finding Robinson and Cole Kmet. Devine Ozigbo leads the JAC backfield with 70 yards and a score. Glennon throws a TD to Cole. Bears, 27-23

Cincinnati (+9) at Houston, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bengals' win over the Steelers last week was the best of both worlds — they got to stick it to a hated division rival without hurting their own 2021 draft position. Ryan Finley wasn't exactly good under center, but he was mobile, and he could be headed back to the bench now that Brandon Allen is healthy. Giovani Bernard was the star for Cincy, though, and with Joe Mixon apparently not coming back this season, he'll get another opportunity to post some big numbers against one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Texans have lost three consecutive games and are only a few spots back in next year's draft order, but, of course, their first-round pick is headed to Miami as part of Bill O'Brien's legacy. Deshaun Watson continues to be brilliant in the shadows — he's third in the league in completion percentage and first in YPA, which is a pretty devastating combination, and losing Will Fuller hasn't slowed him down at all. He'll be the best player on the field Sunday by far, and it a clash between two clubs that generally can't do much of anything right, that's probably enough.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR Tyler Boyd (out, concussion)

HOU injuries: RB Duke Johnson (out, neck), WR Fuller (out, suspension), CB Bradley Roby (out, suspension), CB Phillip Gaines (questionable, knee)

CIN DFS targets: Brandon Allen $4,800 DK / $6,600 FD (HOU 28th in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed, 27th in TD% allowed), Giovani Bernard $4,800 DK / $6,000 FD (HOU 29th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed), Tee Higgins $4,700 DK / $5,800 FD (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), A.J. Green $3,400 DK / $5,500 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

HOU DFS targets: Chad Hansen $4,400 DK / $5,700 FD (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CIN DFS fades: none

HOU DFS fades: Texans DST $2,800 DK / $4,600 FD (32nd in INT%, 32nd in takeaways)

Key stat: CIN is 28th in red-zone conversions at 51.2 percent; HOU is t-18th in red-zone defense at 63.0 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Bernard stitches together 90 scrimmage yards. Allen throws for 230 yards and a TD to Higgins. David Johnson gallops for 100 combined yards and a score. Watson throws for 290 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Brandin Cooks, Jordan Akins and Hansen. Texans, 28-16

N.Y. Giants (+11) at Baltimore, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Giants' tiebreaker advantage over Washington isn't going to matter if they can't catch up to the No-Name club in the NFC East. The offense wasn't particularly effective with a healthy Daniel Jones at the helm, but it's been a disaster with Colt McCoy in the mix, scoring only 30 total points over the last three games. Jones is expected back in action this week, at least. The Ravens are currently on the bubble for a wild-card spot, but one stumble by any of the teams ahead of them puts the in great shape to claim a playoff spot. J.K. Dobbins continues to move to the front of the pack in the Baltimore backfield, seeing double-digit carries and scoring a TD in four consecutive games, and that stability seems to have perked up Lamar Jackson and the offense as a whole — he's got a 9.2 YPA and 6:2 TD:INT over his last three games while running for four TDs of his own, and the Ravens have scored at least 34 points in all three contests. If they're back to being a steamroller when they have the ball, it bodes well for their chances of making some noise in January, assuming they get the help they need to actually make the playoffs.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: QB Jones (questionable, ankle. hamstring), WR Golden Tate (out, calf), LB Blake Martinez (questionable, ankle)

BAL injuries: WR Marquise Brown (questionable, knee), WR Dez Bryant (questionable, thigh), C Matt Skura (questionable, back), DE Calais Campbell (questionable, calf), CB Marcus Peters (questionable, calf), CB Jimmy Smith (out, shoulder)

NYG DFS targets: none

BAL DFS targets: Miles Boykin $3,100 DK / $5,200 FD (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

NYG DFS fades: Daniel Jones $5,000 DK / $6,500 FD (BAL fourth in YPA allowed, fifth in TD% allowed)

BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG are 26th in third-down conversions at 39.2 percent; BAL is t-fourth in third-down defense at 36.6 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Wayne Gallman manages 60 yards. Jones throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding Darius Slayton and Evan Engram, but he also coughs up a fumble that Patrick Queen returns to the house. Dobbins leads the BAL backfield with 80 yards, while Gus Edwards adds 50. Jackson throws for under 200 yards but does hit Mark Andrews for one touchdown and runs in another. Ravens, 27-14

Cleveland at N.Y. Jets (+9.5), o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Depending on what happens elsewhere, the Browns can end their 17-year playoff drought with a win Sunday. They've won five of six since their bye to get themselves into this position, and there's plenty of credit to go around — Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward and others have had their moments to shine, and the talent assembled during those lost seasons is finally paying dividends. The Jets, on the other hand, are coming off a disastrous Week 15 in which the Rams found a way to lose to them. (And, let's be clear, the Rams lost. The Jets didn't win.) The QB class of 2021 looks strong enough that blowing a chance to draft Trevor Lawrence might not have franchise-wrecking implications, but it's still very much in keeping with Adam Gase's tenure that they can't even tank properly. Sam Darnold (barely) topped 200 passing yards in the win, the first time he's accomplished that since Week 4, but he still has a sub-60 percent completion rate and a 6:9 TD:INT on the season. The 2018 third overall pick probably needs a change of scenery as much as the Jets need an overhaul, but for at least two more weeks he'll get to show prospective suitors there's something here to salvage, and the Jets do have a receiving corps capable of making him look good.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: RG Wyatt Teller (out, ankle), DT Sheldon Richardson (questionable, neck)

NYJ injuries: none

CLE DFS targets: Baker Mayfield $6,100 DK / $7,600 FD (NYJ 29th in passing DVOA, 30th in passing yards per game allowed), Rashard Higgins $4,800 DK / $5,800 FD (NYJ 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

NYJ DFS targets: Chris Herndon $2,500 DK / $4,600 FD (CLE 23rd in DVOA vs. TE)

CLE DFS fades: none

NYJ DFS fades: Jamison Crowder $4,500 DK / $6,000 FD (CLE third in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: NYJ are 32nd in red-zone conversions at 41.2 percent; CLE is 14th in red-zone defense at 61.4 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Chubb bangs out 80 yards and a TD, while Kareem Hunt adds 60 combined yards. Mayfield throws for 300 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Higgins and Jarvis Landry. Frank Gore grinds out 50 yards, while Ty Johnson adds 50 scrimmage yards. Darnold throws for 230 yards and two scores, finding Herndon and Denzel Mims. Richardson has a revenge game with a strip sack of Darnold and a fumble recovery for a TD. Browns, 34-17

Carolina (+2.5) at Washington, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

At 4-10, the Panthers are holding down the No. 4 spot in next year's draft, and with Teddy Bridgewater's contract structured to include an easy out after 2021, that puts them firmly in the mix to select a new quarterback if Matt Rhule has his eye on anyone. They might not need one, though — Bridgewater's been solid, and eight of their 10 losses have been by a single score. Give Carolina a healthy Christian McCaffrey next season, plus further development from a pass rush that's looked pretty darn good lately, and they look a lot more like a team that can make the playoffs by, say, reinforcing the secondary or offensive line (or both, in a trade-down) rather than one looking to the future by drafting a QB to marinate behind Bridgewater. Washington came up short against the Seahawks last week, ending their dream of a winning record, but they still sit atop the NFC East at 6-8. Chase Young and the defense have been carrying the load, and the team hasn't allowed more than 20 points in five straight. Of course, the offense hasn't scored more than 23 in four of those five, so when they do secure a victory, it's usually by the skin of their teeth. Alex Smith could be back under center, but if he is he likely won't have Terry McLaurin to throw to, and maybe not Antonio Gibson to hand it off to either. This game could well be decided by which o-line keeps its QB upright the most.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: RB McCaffrey (doubtful, thigh), LT Russell Okung (doubtful, calf), DE Brian Burns (questionable, knee)

WAS injuries: QB Smith (questionable, calf), RB Gibson (questionable, toe), WR McLaurin (doubtful, ankle)

CAR DFS targets: DJ Moore $5,800 DK / $7,200 FD (WAS 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

WAS DFS targets: J.D. McKissic $6,400 DK / $5,800 FD (CAR 29th in YPC allowed, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

CAR DFS fades: Teddy Bridgewater $5,300 DK / $7,100 FD (WAS second in passing DVOA, third in passing yards per game allowed), Robby Anderson $5,500 DK / $6,600 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. WR2), Curtis Samuel $4,900 DK / $5,900 FD (WAS first in DVOA vs. WR3)

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR is 27th in red-zone conversions at 52.0 percent; WAS is second in red-zone defense at 51.4 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mike Davis picks up 80 scrimmage yards. Bridgewater throws for 210 yards and TDs to Ian Thomas and Moore, but he gets sacked four times. McKissic leads the WAS backfield with 100 combined yards and a score. Smith starts and throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Logan Thomas. Washington, 23-20

Denver (+3) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Broncos have lost three of their last four, and while there's not necessarily any shame in losing to teams that currently rank No. 1 (Kansas City), No. 2 (Buffalo) and No. 2 (New Orleans) in their respective conferences, the latter two were blowouts. One more defeat will also give them three campaigns with double-digit losses in their last four, the franchise's worst stretch of football since they lost 10-plus in five consecutive seasons in the late 60s. It increasingly looks like Drew Lock is not the answer under center, which is a shame because he certainly has the talent around him on offense to thrive, and the secondary is once again making life difficult for opposition QBs. I'd say put them in the mix for a 2021 QB from the second tier, guys like Trey Lance or Mac Jones, but John Elway seems to have his own ideas of how to approach the position. The Chargers have an identical record at 5-9, but they're set at quarterback for the next decade or more. Justin Herbert has either thrown for 300 yards or tossed multiple TDs, or both, in 12 of his first 13 NFL starts, with only Bill Belichick's Patriots truly keeping the kid in check. His next touchdown will set a NFL rookie record, and Andrew Luck's rookie record for passing yards isn't out of reach either. He could be missing a couple of his favorite targets in this one with Keenan Allen hobbling and Hunter Henry on the COVID list, but Herbert's been making guys like Tyron Johnson and Jalen Guyton look good lately, and there's always Austin Ekeler to lean on.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: RB Phillip Lindsay (out, hip), OLB Bradley Chubb (questionable, ankle)

LAC injuries: WR Allen (questionable, hamstring), TE Henry (out, COVID), DE Joey Bosa (out, concussion)

DEN DFS targets: Jerry Jeudy $3,700 DK / $5,200 FD (LAC 25th in DVOA vs. WR2)

LAC DFS targets: Austin Ekeler $7,600 DK / $7,000 FD (DEN 27th in rushing DVOA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed), Chargers DST $3,300 DK / $3,700 FD (DEN 32nd in INT% allowed, 32nd in giveaways)

DEN DFS fades: Tim Patrick $4,200 DK / $5,500 FD (LAC fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC are sixth in third-down conversions at 45.4 percent; DEN is 16th in third-down defense at 41.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 DEN, average score 19-19, average margin of victory eight points. The last seven DEN victories (including three straight meetings) have all been by a single score; the last two LAC victories have been by a combined 35 points

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Melvin Gordon racks up 110 combined yards and a TD. Lock throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Jeudy but gets picked off twice. Ekeler pops for 130 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Herbert throws for 280 yards and a second TD to Mike Williams. Chargers, 30-17

Philadelphia at Dallas (+2.5), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

It's remarkable how parallel the seasons have run for these two clubs. Both have a different guy under center than they started the year with, both offensive lines have been gutted and both have had significant issues on defense. Fun fact: these two secondaries rank 31st (Dallas) and 32nd (Philly) in DVOA against deep throws, so whoever attacks downfield the most might be the one to come out on top. Hmm, DeSean Jackson just came off IR too ... Jalen Hurts' ascension has made the Eagles a lot more exciting to watch, but they're still in the basement of the worst division in the league and could be eliminated from the playoff picture regardless of what they do here. The presence of DJax might also just muddle further a receiving tree that was already having trouble finding room for Alshon Jeffery. The Cowboys are technically only one game back of Washington in the division title race, but Washington holds the tiebreaker, so it has no more margin for error — one loss, or one more win by the Nameless Ones, and they're toast. Tony Pollard helped lead Dallas to its highest single-game point total of the year last week, but Ezekiel Elliott's bloated contract probably ensures him a big workload if he's healthy enough to return. Andy Dalton has been a capable enough steward lately, posting a 10:3 TD:INT over the last five games despite a mediocre 6.4 YPA, and the defense seems to have finally been cured of its long-standing allergy to takeaways, but the team probably waited too long to figure things out after Dak Prescott's injury to steal a playoff berth.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: DT Fletcher Cox (questionable, neck), DE Derek Barnett (out, calf)

DAL injuries: RB Elliott (questionable, calf), LB Leighton Vander Esch (out, ankle)

PHI DFS targets: Miles Sanders $7,000 DK / $7,300 FD (DAL 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPC allowed), Greg Ward $4,000 DK / $5,500 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Dallas Goedert $3,600 DK / $5,700 FD (DAL 31st in DVOA vs. TE), Eagles DST $2,900 DK / $4,200 FD (second in sack rate, DAL 30th in giveaways)

DAL DFS targets: Amari Cooper $5,700 DK / $6,600 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), CeeDee Lamb $5,300 DK / $6,000 FD (PHI 29th in DVOA vs. WR2), Cowboys DST $2,400 DK / $3,800 FD (PHI 32nd in sack rate allowed, t-28th in giveaways)

PHI DFS fades: none

DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL is t-20th in third-down conversions at 40.5 percent; PHI is t-sixth in third-down defense at 37.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 DAL, average score 20-20, average margin of victory 12 points. PHI has won two straight meetings, including a 23-9 victory in Week 8 when Ben DiNucci got the start at QB for DAL

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Sanders erupts for 120 scrimmage yards and two TDs. Hurts throws for 270 yards and touchdown to Jackson and Goedert while running for 60 yards. Pollard leads the DAL backfield with 70 combined yards and a score, while Elliott adds 50 yards. Dalton throws for 230 yards and TDs to Cooper and Dalton Schultz. Eagles, 31-30

L.A. Rams (+1) at Seattle, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Much as last week's embarrassment against the Jets should have automatically disqualified the Rams from the postseason, they're actually still in great shape. A win locks them into a playoff spot and moves them back into the top spot in the NFC West, and even if they can't get the job done in Seattle, a Bears loss or a Cardinals win ensures Los Angeles of at least a wild-card spot. The Rams are mostly healthy on both sides of the ball, and the Aaron Donald/Jalen Ramsey-led defense is more than capable of cutting a swath through the NFC side of the playoff bracket no matter who they end up facing. The Seahawks' situation is even more cut and dried — they've already got their playoff tickets booked, and a win gives them their first division title since 2016. Russell Wilson is coming off his worst performance of the year, though, and he struggled in the first meeting against the Rams this season as well. Seattle's porous offensive line just isn't giving him enough time to make full use of his dynamic pair of wideouts, and while the team's defense has patched some of the holes they had in the first half, if they can't find a way to protect Wilson, there are a lot of potential first-round opponents who can make them pay for it.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: RB Cam Akers (out, ankle)

SEA injuries: LG Mike Iupati (doubtful. neck), RT Brandon Shell (questionable, ankle)

LAR DFS targets: Darrell Henderson $4,500 DK / $5,600 FD (SEA 24th in rushing TDs allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

SEA DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: none

SEA DFS fades: Russell Wilson $7,300 DK / $7,900 FD (LAR fourth in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), Tyler Lockett $6,500 DK / $6,900 FD (LAR second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: SEA is third in red-zone conversions at 75.0 percent; LAR are 11th in red-zone defense at 58.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 LAR, average score 25-20 LAR, average margin of victory 10 points. LAR have won five of the last six meetings, including a 23-16 victory in Week 10

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henderson picks up 90 scrimmage yards. Jared Goff throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds. Chris Carson finds 70 yards and a TD. Wilson rebounds with 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting DK Metcalf and David Moore. Seahawks, 24-20

Tennessee (+3.5) at Green Bay, o/u 56.0 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Titans continue to cling to the AFC South lead over the Colts by their fingernails, but it could be tough to find fresh purchase this week on the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau. Derrick Henry was seemingly built for this sort of environment, though, and he needs 321 more rushing yards for 2,000 on the campaign. For that matter, A.J. Brown and Corey Davis have been dishing out punishment of their own to would-be tacklers. Tennessee's scored 30 or more points in five straight games and has struck for 40 or more four times this year, including the 46 it hung on Detroit last week. It's no wonder the over/under here is sky high. The Packers were also headed for their fifth straight game with 30-plus points until they decided to take the second half off, but it didn't end up costing them against the Panthers. Aaron Rodgers had a little trouble dealing with Carolina's pressure, but potentially getting center Corey Linsley back from IR would help with that, and a Tennessee squad that ranks last in sack rate isn't going to present the same problems anyway. If the Seahawks don't win earlier in the afternoon, Green Bay can also lock up a first-round bye with a victory, so look for Rodgers to come out slinging it if that door is open. Or even if it isn't, really. It's kind of his thing.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: none

GB injuries: RB Jamaal Williams (doubtful, quad)

TEN DFS targets: Corey Davis $6,100 DK / $7,200 FD (GB 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)

GB DFS targets: Aaron Rodgers $7,800 DK / $9,000 FD (TEN 30th in passing DVOA, 29th in passing yards per game allowed), Robert Tonyan $5,100 DK / $6,400 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS fades: Cameron Batson $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (GB third in DVOA vs. WR3), Titans DST $2,600 DK / $3,300 FD (32nd in sack rate, GB first in INT% allowed, t-first in giveaways)

GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB is first in red-zone conversions at 78.4 percent; TEN is 30th in red-zone defense at 70.9 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 20s, 13-16 mph wind, 10-40 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Henry plows for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Ryan Tannehill throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Davis and Brown. Aaron Jones answers back with 120 combined yards and a score, and AJ Dillon also vultures a short TD. Rodgers throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Davante Adams, Allen Lazard and Tonyan. Packers, 38-31

Tampa Bay at Detroit (+9.5), o/u 54.0 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

Tom Brady's yo-yo act has been something to behold. He's alternated great performances with poor efforts the last month and a half — in the three good ones he's averaged 358.7 passing yards with an 8.6 YPA and 7:2 TD:INT; in the three bad ones he's averaged 207.0 passing yards with a 5.7 YPA and 4:5 TD:INT. Even a bad one here probably gets him his fourth consecutive 4,000-yard campaign, though, and a win locks up a playoff spot for the Bucs. Tampa Bay also faces a team in chaos. Put aside the question of whether a banged-up Matthew Stafford will continue to start even with the Lions eliminated from the postseason, as we don't even know who will be answering it. Interim head coach/offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, and most of the defensive staff, from coordinator Cory Undlin on down, were ruled close contacts of someone who returned a positive COVID-19 test and will not be at the stadium Saturday. That leaves wide receivers coach Robert Prince handling head-coaching duties, QB coach Sean Ryan calling plays on offense and the research and analysis assistant, Evan Rothstein, as the defensive play-caller (!!!). I don't even know how to begin to account for that when projecting the final score, but the idea of Brady attacking an effectively coordinator-less defense seems like a recipe for a blowout — especially if the unit's most experienced leader, Jamie Collins, can't suit up. On the other hand, Detroit already ranked last in points per game allowed at 31.1, and in the bottom five in both rushing DVOA and passing DVOA. How much worse can its defense get?

The Skinny

TB injuries: RB Ronald Jones (out, COVID/finger), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, knee), CB Carlton Davis (questionable, groin), S Antoine Winfield (questionable, shoulder)

DET injuries: QB Stafford (questionable, ribs/thumb), WR Kenny Golladay (questionable, hip), LT Taylor Decker (questionable, groin), C Frank Ragnow (questionable, neck), RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai (questionable, concussion), K Matt Prater (questionable, back), LB Collins (questionable, neck), CB Darryl Roberts (questionable, hip)

TB DFS targets: Tom Brady $6,800 DK / $8,000 FD (DET 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed, 30th in TD% allowed), Leonard Fournette $5,500 DK / $7,000 FD (DET 28th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)

DET DFS targets: T.J. Hockenson $4,600 DK / $6,200 FD (TB 25th in DVOA vs. TE)

TB DFS fades: none

DET DFS fades: D'Andre Swift $6,400 DK / $7,200 FD (TB first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, t-second in rushing TDs allowed), Lions DST $2,000 DK / $3,000 FD (t-30th in takeaways, TB third in sack rate allowed)

Key stat: TB is sixth in red-zone conversions at 69.8 percent; DET is 31st in red-zone defense at 73.2 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Fournette erupts for 110 scrimmage yards and two TDs. Brady throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Swift gets held to 70 combined yards. Stafford puts together a heroic effort, throwing for 320 yards and three TDs (two to Hockenson and one to Mohamed Sanu), but it's not enough. Buccaneers, 31-27

San Francisco (+5) at Arizona, o/u 48.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Niners had gone a couple weeks without another serious injury, so I guess they were overdue. Nick Mullens is now headed for elbow surgery, and Jimmy Garoppolo isn't ready to play again, so Kyle Shanahan will hand the reins of the offense back over to C.J. Beathard — though it would be a lot more interesting if Shanahan was forced to use Beathard's backup, as San Francisco went out and picked up the Cardinals' 2018 first-round pick, Josh Rosen, for depth. George Kittle is closing in on a return, and even though they've been eliminated from the playoffs themselves, a chance to play spoiler against a division rival that's mostly had their number in recent years might be enough motivation to get the star tight end back on the field. The Cards can't clinch a wild-card spot this week on their own with the Bears still only a game back and holding tiebreaker advantages, but a win would mean their fate is in their own hands in Week 17. Kyler Murray also appears to be back to 100 percent health — he scored his first rushing TD since Week 10 in their victory over the Eagles last week while throwing for a career-high 406 yards. Arizona's only going to go as far as its second-year QB takes it, but as he closes in on 40 touchdowns for the season (he's got 26 passing, 11 rushing), it's clear that might actually be pretty far.

The Skinny

SF injuries: QB Mullens (out, elbow), RB Raheem Mostert (IR, ankle), WR Deebo Samuel (out. hamstring), WR Rickie James (questionable, ankle), C Hroniss Grasu (questionable, knee), RG Colton McKivitz (questionable, COVID), DT Javon Kinlaw (questionable, knee), CB Richard Sherman (questionable, calf), S Jimmie Ward (questionable, concussion)

ARI injuries: RB Chase Edmonds (questionable, ankle), WR Larry Fitzgerald (questionable, groin), LG Justin Pugh (questionable, calf), K Zane Gonzalez (IR, back), OLB Haason Reddick (questionable, shoulder), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (questionable, hamstring)

SF DFS targets: Richie James $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (ARI 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ARI DFS targets: Cardinals DST $3,300 DK / $4,800 FD (fifth in sack rate, SF 30th in INT% allowed, 31st in giveaways)

SF DFS fades: none

ARI DFS fades: none

Key stat: SF is 25th in third-down conversions at 39.9 percent; ARI is t-13th in third-down defense at 40.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 ARI, average score 26-18 ARI, average margin of victory nine points. The last five season series have been sweeps, and ARI won the first meeting of 2020, a 24-20 victory in Week 1

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop Jeff Wilson gains 60 yards and a score, while Jerick McKinnon catches a touchdown pass. Beathard throws for 270 yards and a second TD to James. Kenyan Drake scampers for 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Murray throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting DeAndre Hopkins and Andy Isabella, while also running for 50 yards and a score. Cardinals, 34-21

Miami at Las Vegas (+3), o/u 47.5 – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Do not ever come to me with your fantasy football sob stories. In the RotoWire Steak League, I got a team that started the year with Dak Prescott at quarterback into the semifinals, where I lost by only 15.78 points. My QB? Derek Carr. Oh, but he's FINE NOW, ISN'T HE? Fume fume fume. The Raiders loss last week has left them all but out of the playoffs, a disturbing pattern for a team that also collapsed down the stretch last season, but at least Marcus Mariota got to rehabilitate his value a little. Darren Waller also hasn't cared who's been under center, and after piling up another 150 yards against the Chargers he's now 33 yards shy of his second consecutive 1,000-yard season. The Dolphins can't clinch anything this week, but they probably need to win out to stay ahead of the Ravens for the final wild-card spot, as Baltimore will play host to the Giants on Sunday and then travel to Cincy in Week 17. It remains a possibility that a team with 11 wins misses the playoffs in the AFC this season, which could be the football gods' way of maintaining karmic balance for the NFC East. The defense, now No. 1 in the league in points allowed per game, continues to lead the way for Miami, but don't overlook the contributions of Tua Tagovailoa. Despite a banged-up receiving corps, he clawed out a victory last week, and while his two rushing TDs got most of the attention, a rookie QB completing better than 75 percent of his passes against a Bill Belichick defense might have been the more impressive feat.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: WR DeVante Parker (questionable, hamstring), WR Jakeem Grant (questionable, hamstring), TE Mike Gesicki (questionable, shoulder), LG Ereck Flowers (questionable. ankle), LB Jerome Baker (questionable, knee)

LV injuries: WR Henry Ruggs (questionable, COVID), WR Hunter Renfrow (questionable, concussion), C Rodney Hudson (questionable, knee), RG Gabe Jackson (questionable, knee)

MIA DFS targets: Salvon Ahmed $5,600 DK / $6,700 FD (LV 31st in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing TDs allowed)

LV DFS targets: Josh Jacobs $6,600 DK / $7,800 FD (MIA 28th in YPC allowed, 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

MIA DFS fades: none

LV DFS fades: Hunter Renfrow $3,300 DK / $5,300 FD (MIA first in DVOA vs. WR2), Raiders DST $2,300 DK / $3,400 FD (31st in sack rate, t-28th in takeaways)

Key stat: LV is 24th in red-zone conversions at 56.6 percent; MIA is eighth in red-zone defense at 56.4 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Ahmed dashes for 90 yards and a TD. Tagovailoa throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, finding Parker and Lynn Bowden. Jacobs cranks out 100 combined yards and a score. Carr throws for 250 yards and a TD to Nelson Agholor but gets picked off twice. Dolphins, 24-20

Minnesota (+7) at New Orleans, o/u 51.0 – Friday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Vikings' wild-card chances are hanging by a thread at this point. Consecutive losses have left them with this path to the playoffs: Minnesota needs to win its two remaining games, Arizona needs to lose both of its remaining games and Chicago has to lose at least once more. That might be tough to swallow for a team that already did a heck of a job climbing out of a 1-5 hole just to get into postseason contention at all, but hey — to quote a guy who knows a thing or two about falling from grace, "It's Christmas, Theo. It's the time of miracles." The fact that the Vikes have gotten this far can largely be attributed to Dalvin Cook. He's hit for triple-digit rushing yards in three consecutive games and six of eight since the team's bye, and if it weren't for the game he missed in Week 6, he might have a shot at catching Derrick Henry for the rushing crown. Those last two 100-yard games have also come against the Bucs and Bears, so he might not bat an eye at a battle with another top-ranked run defense in the Saints. Even after consecutive losses of their own, New Orleans still has a postseason berth locked up, and it needs only one win or one Tampa Bay loss to claim their fourth straight NFC South title. Drew Brees looked rusty in his return last week against Kansas City, but he got better as the game went on, and Minnesota's secondary should give him a lot less trouble, even if he doesn't have Michael Thomas, or potentially Tre'Quan Smith, to lean on.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: RB Alexander Mattison (questionable, concussion), TE Kyle Rudolph (questionable, foot), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, calf), CB Cameron Dantzler (questionable, foot)

NO injuries: WR Thomas (IR, ankle), WR Smith (questionable, ankle), LG Andrus Peat (questionable, ankle), RG Nick Easton (questionable, concussion), DE Trey Hendrickson (questionable, neck), S Marcus Williams (questionable, ankle)

MIN DFS targets: none

NO DFS targets: Emmanuel Sanders $5,200 DK / $6,000 FD (MIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

MIN DFS fades: Kirk Cousins $5,900 DK / $7,000 FD (NO third in passing DVOA, fifth in passing yards per game allowed, fifth in YPA allowed), Dalvin Cook $8,800 DK / $9,700 FD (NO second in rushing DVOA, first in rushing TDs allowed), Irv Smith $3,500 DK / $5,400 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE)

NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN is t-15th in third-down conversions at 42.1 percent; NO is 11th in third-down defense at 39.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Cook rumbles for 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 260 yards and a TD to Justin Jefferson but gets picked off twice. Alvin Kamara racks up 130 combined yards and a score, while Latavius Murray also punches in a TD. Brees throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Sanders. Saints, 27-17

 Last week's record: 11-5, 7-7-2 ATS, 7-9 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 138-85-1, 111-107-6 ATS, 103-116-5 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 931-567-6, 704-744-56 ATS, 596-627-25 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)