Exploiting the Matchups: Week 16 Start/Sit

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Published on December 24, 2020

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

RotoWire's weekly projections
RW weekly composite rankings
RW Betting odds
RW Target share page
RW Snap count page
RW Defense vs. Position stats
RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
airyards.com

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players who are being started in less than 80 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult start/sit decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to "fantasy points" are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, a.k.a. standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

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Quarterback

Tom Brady at DET

52% started on Yahoo, 59% on ESPN

Fantasy managers who stuck with Brady throughout an up-and-down season get a nice reward in the form of playoff trips to Atlanta and Detroit. The 43-year-old rebounded from a poor first half to finish with 390 yards and two TDs in a win over the Falcons last week and should provide similar numbers — let's say 300 and three — Saturday afternoon in Detroit. The Lions' defense might be the worst in the NFL, ranking 32nd in DVOA

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

RotoWire's weekly projections
RW weekly composite rankings
RW Betting odds
RW Target share page
RW Snap count page
RW Defense vs. Position stats
RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
airyards.com

Upgrade 👍

Quarterback

Tom Brady at DET

52% started on Yahoo, 59% on ESPN

Honorable Mentions: Jalen Hurts, PHI at DAL; Drew Brees, NO vs. MIN; Baker Mayfield, CLE at NYJ; Mitchell Trubisky, CHI at JAX

Running Back

J.K. Dobbins vs. NYG

62% started on Yahoo, 50% on ESPN

The Giants have done a decent job defending the run, but their continued incompetence on the other side of the ball should set up Baltimore for plenty of scoring opportunities even if Greg Roman's offense isn't firing on all cylinders. Dobbins scored a touchdown each of the last four weeks, averaging 13.3 carries for 64.5 yards while pushing Mark Ingram out of a role. Ingram was even a healthy scratch for last week's win over Jacksonville, and Dobbins got five more carries than Gus Edwards.

Leonard Fournette at DET

47% started on Yahoo, 38% on ESPN

Fournette started his first game of the year last week, finishing with 14 carries, five targets, 65 yards and two touchdowns on 66 percent snap share. He may not have the good fortune of two goal-line scores again, but he should see a similar workload this weekend against a Lions defense that's given up 4.5 YPC (19th) and 137.3 rushing yards per game (137.3). Just make sure Ronald Jones (finger, COVID-19 list) isn't activated before Saturday's game, considering coach Bruce Arians doesn't have the best track record for being honest with the media (Arians said Jones looks "doubtful" to return this week).

Honorable Mentions: David Johnson, HOU vs. CIN; Giovani Bernard, CIN at HOU

Wide Receiver

Jarvis Landry at NYJ

63% started on Yahoo, 60% on ESPN

Landry has gobbled up 28 percent of Cleveland's targets since Odell Beckham tore an ACL, and while his initial returns were disappointing, the veteran receiver now has a four-game streak with six or more catches for 52 or more yards. Landy has scored 48 percent of his 2020 fantasy points in the last four games, and he now faces a Jets defense that's given up the seventh-most points (33.3) and sixth-most yards per target (8.8) to wide receivers. Landry is a top-20 WR for fantasy Super Bowls.

Emmanuel Sanders vs. MIN

24% started on Yahoo, 16% on ESPN

The Saints placed Michael Thomas (ankle) and Deonte Harris (neck) on injured reserve Saturday, then lost Tre'Quan Smith to an ankle injury Sunday. They may get Marquez Callaway (knee) back from IR for Friday's game, but even then it'll be just him, a second undrafted rookie (Juwan Johnson) and Tommylee Lewis competing for wideout reps with Sanders. The 33-year-old saw only five targets last week, but he averaged 7.8 in his four games with Thomas inactive earlier this season (Weeks 2-5).

Honorable Mentions: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin & Antonio Brown, TB at DET; Amari Cooper, DAL vs. PHI Sammy Watkins, KC vs. ATL

Tight End

Robert Tonyan vs. TEN

65% started on Yahoo, 58% on ESPN

If a touchdown a day keeps the doctor away, Big Bob Tonyan can go ahead and cancel his health insurance. His scoring streak is now up to five in a row, though he dropped to three targets last week after getting exactly five in each of his previous four games. He shouldn't need a lot of volume to put up a decent receiving line this weekend, facing a Titans defense that's given up 8.3 YPT (30th) and a 74.7 percent catch rate (29th) to tight ends.

Honorable Mentions: Logan Thomas, WAS vs. CAR; Jared Cook, NO vs. MIN

Kicker

Ryan Succop at DET

13% started on Yahoo, 14% on ESPN

It's been a while since Succop had a big fantasy performance, but he does have five in a row with at least six points, and he's missed just two field-goal attempts all season. Playing indoors with a team implied total of 32 points, Succop is a top-10 kicker for Week 16.

Honorable Mentions: Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU vs. CIN; Greg Zuerlein, DAL vs. PHI

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Quarterback

Matt Ryan at KC

41% started on Yahoo, 36% on ESPN

Ryan threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns last week, ending a four-game streak with less than 15 fantasy points. It was nice to see he's still capable of those performances, but a Week 16 encore doesn't seem likely, with the Falcons playing outdoors and potentially not having Julio Jones (hamstring) again. The Chiefs still have issues defending the run, but they're 13th in pass-defense DVOA (3.1%), 10th in opponent NY/A (6.2) and 17th in fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.5).

Not-so-honorable Mentions: Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. IND; Jared Goff, LAR at SEA; Kirk Cousins, MIN at NO; Philip Rivers, IND at PIT; Derek Carr, LV vs. MIA

Running Back

D'Andre Swift vs. TB

66% started on Yahoo, 64% on ESPN

It looks like Matthew Stafford (thumb/ribs) will continue to play through his injuries, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Detroit offense will remain competent, as three of the five O-line starters missed Wednesday's practice with injuries. A matchup with Tampa is tough to begin with, and Swift will really have things stacked against him if any combination of LT Taylor Decker (groin), RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai (concussion) and C Frank Ragnow (throat) aren't able to play.

Wayne Gallman at BAL

38% started on Yahoo, 42% on ESPN

After seeing just two more carries than Alfred Morris last week, Gallman could soon have added competition in the form of Devonta Freeman (ankle). But even if Freeman isn't activated from IR, there's a good chance Gallman will bust for the third week in a row. The Giants haven't scored more than 19 points in a game since a Week 11 bye, and their starting QB will either be Colt McCoy or a less-than-full-strength Daniel Jones (ankle/hamstring). Gallman's fantasy production has largely come from touchdowns, which figure to remain in short supply for the Giants.

Not-so-honorable Mentions: James Conner, PIT vs. IND; Damien Harris, NE vs. BUF

Wide Receiver

Tyler Lockett vs. LAR

83% started on Yahoo, 74% on ESPN

Lockett largely seems to be viewed as an every-week, matchup-proof fantasy starter, even after eight consecutive games with less than 70 yards. I'm not saying you should go wild and bench him for Tee Higgins or Nelson Agholor, but I'd be comfortable sitting Lockett if my alternative was someone like Jarvis Landry or Brandin Cooks. The Rams have allowed a league-low 22.9 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and they've already shut down Russell Wilson once this season.

T.Y. Hilton at PIT

48% started on Yahoo, 39% on ESPN

Hilton's hot streak has largely been a product of circumstance, with each of his last four games played indoors against a defense ranked outside the Top 20 for both fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and DVOA versus the pass (TEN, HOU, LV, HOU). He'll get a much bigger challenge Week 16, playing outdoors against a Pittsburgh team that leads the NFL in pass-defense DVOA (-21.7%) and has given up the 10th-fewest points to WRs (28.2).

Not-so-honorable Mentions: Chase Claypool, PIT vs. IND; Robby Anderson, CAR at WAS; Michael Pittman, IND at PIT

Tight End

Evan Engram at BAL

40% started on Yahoo, 49% on ESPN

Engram was productive in November, but he hasn't been able to stay afloat as the Giants offense drowns around him, catching 10 of 19 targets for only 96 yards the last three weeks. He should see at least a handful of passes Sunday; just don't expect much in terms of production with the Giants carrying the lowest implied total (16.5) of the week.

Not-so-honorable Mentions: Tyler Higbee, LAR at SEA; Trey Burton, IND at PIT

Kicker

Younghoe Koo at KC

87% started on Yahoo, 90% on ESPN

Most fantasy mangers will look at the game log and continue to start Koo. Understandable, but he's still a kicker, which means his fantasy production still largely depends on the circumstances around him. This week, he'll play outdoors in cold weather, with the Falcons carrying an implied total of only 21.75 points. Is Koo really on the Justin Tucker level, where you start him regardless of context because he's so skilled that he regularly creates additional points in situations where most teams would punt or go for it? I say '"no," or at least "not yet."