Corner Report: Wild-Card Round

This article will go game by game for the wild-card slate looking at the top wide receivers from an offense and, based on the inside/outside and left/right splits in the alignment data of those receivers, identify the cornerbacks most likely to face them in man coverage. The corners named will parenthetically cite the rank of their coverage grade from Pro Football Focus from the 2020 season, though sometimes with reference to prior years when noted.

Receivers very rarely see the same corner every play, be it due to formational quirks or zone coverage calls by the defense, so a receiver's fortunes depend on much more than just the quality of the corner they're likely to see the most in a given game. Even against a bad corner, a good receiver can be denied the opportunity if the pass rush or something else outside his control complicates things. But it's part of the puzzle, and it's worth keeping track of.

Receivers are left with an Upgrade, Downgrade, or Even verdict based on their projected matchup. This shouldn't be read as 'good' or 'bad' but rather a measured tweak from the receiver's baseline projection against an average secondary matchup.

BUF vs IND

BUFFALO WIDE RECEIVERS

This matchup between the Bills offense and Colts defense offers a lot of intrigue, but not in a way that an article like this is likely to foresee. That's because Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is committed to a strategy of deception – some coaches commit to an approach of 'Just Beat the Guy In Front of You,' but Eberflus tries to put his guys in position to trick the ones in front of them. When it works, it allows the Colts to bring overachieving returns from its corners – Xavier Rhodes is a great example, enjoying one of his best pro seasons in 2020 after crashing and burning for years in Minnesota prior to that. This makes the Colts defense wily, but for our purposes it makes it tough to anticipate the specific matchups, to the extent that they exist at all.

'Overachievement' is what the Colts need here to slow a Bills offense loaded with firepower between the Josh Allen running threat and the unlimited attack points afforded by their standout receivers and Allen's railgun arm. If Cole Beasley (knee) is out or limited then the Bills will need to turn to Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie for more snaps. Perhaps the Bills lose something without Beasley, but Davis and McKenzie both have substantial talents and should prove an effective combined replacement if necessary. Whoever is in the slot runs against Kenny Moore (78.1 PFF) most times, but the Colts give Moore enough rover-type functions, especially as a blitzer, that we shouldn't consider it an every-down sort of deal.

The previously mentioned Rhodes (77.5 PFF) might shadow Stefon Diggs after shadowing DJ Chark in Week 17, but prior to that Rhodes simply played the right side of the defense. If they don't attempt to shadow Diggs then Rhodes would play on the right and T.J. Carrie (67.0 PFF) would play the left. In a sense it seems pointless to shadow Diggs – what's the difference between losing and losing? – but Rhodes is bigger and faster than Carrie so perhaps that will be part of the consideration.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie

INDIANAPOLIS WIDE RECEIVERS

We can probably expect Tre'Davious White (77.9 PFF) to shadow T.Y. Hilton, which probably constitutes a downgrade for the aging veteran. White isn't exactly a dominant corner, but his build and athletic traits are close to the ideal for neutralizing a smallish speed receiver like Hilton. If White shadows Hilton then it would leave some rotation of Josh Norman (69.9 PFF) and Levi Wallace (56.0 PFF) to cover Michael Pittman in most cases. Pittman is a good athlete for a big receiver, but he doesn't truly boast standout speed, which is the best way to hurt either of Wallace or Norman. The slot receiver is usually Zach Pascal, who probably has the easiest matchup of the Colts receivers against struggling slot corner Taron Johnson (55.6 PFF).

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: T.Y. Hilton
Even: Zach Pascal, Michael Pittman

SEA vs LAR

SEATTLE WIDE RECEIVERS

Perhaps he'll win in this, the third battle this year between the two, but DK Metcalf has generally struggled through his two matchups with Jalen Ramsey (80.3 PFF) and is at risk of making it three in a row. It wouldn't reflect poorly on Metcalf in any way if so – Ramsey hasn't really lost to anyone this year. If Ramsey shadows Metcalf as expected then it would generally leave Tyler Lockett against Troy Hill (75.7 PFF), a player who has done well this year but probably can't run with speed like Lockett's on a seven-step fly route. If the Seahawks are going to hurt the Rams deep, then Lockett against Hill might be their best chance. In three-wide sets where Lockett plays the slot David Moore should generally be the third receiver, and he should generally run against Darious Williams (79.6 PFF). On paper it looks like this will be challenging for Russell Wilson.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: DK Metcalf, David Moore
Even: Tyler Lockett

RAMS WIDE RECEIVERS

Keep in mind that Jared Goff's thumb might screw this one up regardless of the matchups. The Rams move their receivers around enough that each of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds should see a variety of matchup looks, but it appears that the general base loadout will feature Woods on the right, Kupp on the left in two-wide and in the slot in three-wide, and Reynolds on the left in three-wide. Within that base tendency Woods would generally see Shaquill Griffin (63.6 PFF), Kupp would see Ugo Amadi (67.1 PFF) and Reynolds would see D.J. Reed (69.8 PFF). Kupp would see Reed in two-wide looks in this scenario. Reed can probably play a bit, but at 5-9 he is ill-suited to playing a physical game against Kupp, and Reynolds especially is a threat to beat Reed over the top. Griffin's PFF grade is the lowest of the group but he's actually the best of them – Woods could be fine anyway but Griffin is definitely the best corner here.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds

WAS vs TB

WASHINGTON WIDE RECEIVERS

It's not clear whether the Buccaneers will have Carlton Davis (66.4 PFF) in this game, but if they do he is a good bet to shadow Terry McLaurin (ankle). You would normally have reason to assume McLaurin wins that matchup – any team leaving a shadow corner one-on-one against McLaurin is asking for trouble – but with McLaurin supposedly playing through a high ankle sprain there's a lot working against him. That's normally a four-week injury, and he only missed one game. It's puzzling – hopefully it was just an exaggerated diagnosis, though Davis probably wouldn't agree. Jamel Dean would be left against Cam Sims in this scenario and only a busted zone coverage assignment could save Sims then. It's a nightmare matchup for him. Steven Sims would be a candidate to lead the team in slot snaps, the majority of which figure to line up against Sean Murphy-Bunting (55.3 PFF), who is probably better than his PFF grade.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: Cam Sims
Even: Terry McLaurin, Steven Sims

TAMPA BAY WIDE RECEIVERS

Mike Evans (knee) seems well short of 100 percent health after logging just a limited practice this week, but at around 6-foot-5, 230 pounds he doesn't need to be fast to present a viable target against Washington's effective but smallish outside corners. Kendall Fuller (65.3 PFF) on the right and Ronald Darby (75.9 PFF) on the left will be the two corners Evans and Antonio Brown see for the most part. In the slot Washington tends to run Jimmy Moreland (56.7 PFF) in the slot, and he'll desperately need linebacker and safety help against Chris Godwin, who's a major threat to go off if a target funnel works toward his direction.

Upgrade: Chris Godwin
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Mike Evans, Antonio Brown

TEN vs BAL

TENNESSEE WIDE RECEIVERS

You have to think the Ravens will shadow A.J. Brown with Marlon Humphrey (77.6 PFF). Humphrey might be a top-three corner in the NFL, but it just doesn't feel like a good basis to fade Brown, who to this point doesn't seem containable by any one corner. The Ravens would probably need to commit to shadowing Brown with Humphrey and double-teaming Brown nearly every play for it to worth downgrading Brown over his secondary matchup. If Ryan Tannehill gets the ball to him (there's your real concern) then for now we have reason to believe Brown will almost always win. Corey Davis is of course capable of the other side, though even he will face a tough matchup against Marcus Peters (69.4 PFF). It's probably not enough to constitute a downgrade, but it's not a green light exactly either.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: A.J. Brown, Corey Davis

BALTIMORE WIDE RECEIVERS

Tennessee tends to run Malcolm Butler (72.7 PFF) at right corner, Adoree' Jackson (66.8 PFF) at left corner and Desmond King (60.9 PFF) in the slot. The latter two are relatively recent additions and big upgrades over what the Titans were trotting out at left and slot corner previously. It's a bit of a bummer for Marquise Brown, especially in the case of Jackson, because he's the one Tennessee corner with the speed to run at all with Brown, and Brown lines up a little more against Jackson's side than Butler's. Still, Brown should have good chances to strike in this game and is still good for his own part despite his visible struggles this year. Miles Boykin has a size and speed advantage over whoever he runs against – probably Butler more than Jackson or King – but that's true in every game Boykin plays in. Willie Snead should probably run against King the vast majority of the time. Despite his low current PFF grade, King was a productive corner with the Chargers before Tennessee made their in-season trade to acquire him.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, Miles Boykin

NO vs CHI

NEW ORLEANS WIDE RECEIVERS

This is probably a game where the matchups are obscured by the schemes, as is often the case with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. There's always a big-picture effect with this offense because of the intricacies those two bring, and therefore it's usually not worth fixating on the individual matchups so much. As long as Brees is healthy, the fact that he's at home against a middling defense should tilt the general trend toward his favor. Usually a good game for Brees means a good game for whatever pass catcher the Saints designate for usage that week. Before 2020 that answer was almost always 'Michael Thomas,' but we don't know what the deal is with his ankle. Perhaps it will simply be Emmanuel Sanders if Thomas is out, but Marquez Callaway has shown the ability to make leading contributions in this offense at a few points this year, so he might need to step up too with Tre'Quan Smith out.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Marquez Callaway

 
CHICAGO WIDE RECEIVERS

Allen Robinson can be slowed by maybe three corners in the NFL, and none of them play for the Saints. As is usually the case, no one should be nearly as worried about Robinson's play as they should be Mitchell Trubisky. If Robinson gets open, Trubisky is fully capable of blowing it anyway. But if Trubisky has one of his better days, then the Saints corners wouldn't be any cause for remaining concern. Marshon Lattimore (53.7 PFF) and Janoris Jenkins (66.0 PFF) should split almost all the outside snaps, either with Lattimore on the right or some sort of player assignment. It seemed that the Saints mostly had Lattimore against Justin Jefferson and Jenkins against Adam Thielen when the Saints played the Vikings in Week 16, but I don't know what that means for Robinson and Darnell Mooney. Robinson in any case has the advantage over either, while Mooney is probably looking at a break-even at worst. Anthony Miller should see Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (60.6 PFF) in the slot. If Mooney can't play with his ankle injury then his primary replacement will likely be Javon Wims, who's been supremely ineffective to this point in his three-year career.

Upgrade: Allen Robinson
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller, Javon Wims

PIT vs CLE

PITTSBURGH WIDE RECEIVERS

If Denzel Ward (74.6 PFF) is out then that would be very good news for all Pittsburgh receivers, especially Diontae Johnson, who reliably draws the most targets of the three when Ben Roethlisberger is on the field. Then again, the remaining Browns cornerback personnel might be so overwhelmed by the talent of JuJu Smith-Schuster or/and Chase Claypool that perhaps even Roethlisberger can get loose for some downfield shots. Opposite Ward (or his replacement) will likely be Terrance Mitchell (64.2 PFF) – a quick veteran corner but one vulnerable to downfield speed. Claypool especially could prove dangerous to Mitchell. If Ward is out then his replacement might be Robert Jackson (50.1 PFF), a fairly athletic corner but one who's likely low on skill. Any of the Pittsburgh wideouts or their backups could probably get the better of Jackson, who was an over-aged undrafted prospect out of UNLV. Slot corner M.J. Stewart (44.1 PFF) is a clear on-paper mismatch against Smith-Schuster.

Upgrade: Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool
Downgrade: N/A
Even: N/A

CLEVELAND WIDE RECEIVERS

It's not clear whether Donovan Peoples-Jones (concussion) will be able to play, but if he can he and Rashard Higgins should log most of the outside receiver snaps, probably on an even left/right split. If so they should both see a fairly even serving of outside corners Steven Nelson (68.1 PFF) and Joe Haden (69.6 PFF), both of whom tend to play well within the Pittsburgh scheme. Higgins is a skilled enough receiver that he could play well anyway, but build and athletic trait-wise the Pittsburgh corners are well-built to deal with him. DPJ is bigger and more athletic and could pose more of a separation threat, but he isn't as skilled as Higgins. Jarvis Landry is the easiest Browns receiver to project, because he should almost always run against Mike Hilton (67.0 PFF), a good player but one Landry can beat.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones