This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
While Americans celebrate Independence Day on Tuesday, first-round action at Wimbledon continues across the pond from the grass courts of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in London. Tuesday's action includes a pair of former Wimbledon men's finalists looking to add to their success at this venue, as well as both a clear favorite and an intriguing underdog among American women. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, and Massachusetts was recently added to that list of eligible states.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Wimbledon Picks: Upset Alert
Alison Riske-Amritraj (+255) vs. Paula Badosa
Riske-Amritraj has slipped to No. 141 in the rankings at age 33, but the American has always been a tough out on grass. She has made the third round or better at a Grand Slam 10 times in her career, and five of those instances have come at Wimbledon, including a run to the quarterfinals in 2019. Badosa had been in nice form during the clay-court swing, but she has been sidelined since Rome in May due to a stress fracture in her spine. Even if the 35th-ranked Spaniard's no longer facing any physical limitations, adjusting to a lack of match play won't be easy for Badosa under the pressure of a Grand Slam environment.
Matteo Berrettini (+160) vs. Lorenzo Sonego
Berrettini has been the better player between these two Italians when healthy, but the 2021 Wimbledon finalist has spent most of 2023 recovering from an abdominal injury. Sonego handled Berrettini 6-1, 6-2 in Stuttgart in Berrettini's first match back from a two-month layoff, but Berrettini has had three weeks to shake off the rust since then. Sonego's rightfully favored given the uncertainty over Berrettini's form, but Berrettini's tremendous serve is more than capable of papering over any holes in his game on grass, so he's worth a look here as the underdog.
Honorable Mentions
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (+235) vs. Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon Odds: Lock It In
Madison Keys (-475) vs. Sonay Kartal
Keys is coming off a dominant performance at the grass-court tune-up in Eastbourne, which she won without dropping a set while beating Coco Gauff and Daria Kasatkina. The former Wimbledon quarterfinalist should keep rolling against the 266th-ranked Kartal, who would have been highly unlikely to make the main draw here had she not been given a wild card by her native Great Britain. This is simply a mismatch in talent.
Ons Jabeur (-425) vs. Magdalena Frech
Jabeur has been hindered by injuries for much of 2023, but last year's Wimbledon finalist has finally enjoyed a healthy stretch over the past couple months, and Jabeur managed to reach the quarterfinals at the French Open. The sixth-ranked Tunisian's slices are most effective on the low-bouncing grass, and she already beat the 70th-ranked Frech earlier this year, winning their first career meeting 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 on the hard courts of Indian Wells. The court surface should play significantly more in Jabeur's favor in this rematch.
Honorable Mention
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-500) vs. Dominic Thiem
Wimbledon Predictions: Value Bets
Milos Raonic (-125) vs. Dennis Novak
After a two-year rehab from an Achilles injury that looked like it could end his career, Raonic is back for what could be his final appearance at the site of his lone Grand Slam final appearance in 2016. The big-serving Canadian -- who was once a staple in the top 10 -- looked highly impressive in his return to action last month with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over Miomir Kecmanovic in his first match back, but Raonic's shoulder tightened up ahead of his second match. A repeat of that tightness could be a concern before the second round here, but Raonic should be good to go for his opening match against the 159th-ranked Novak, who has a 3-10 career record in Grand Slam main draw matches.
Maxime Cressy (-140) vs. Laslo Djere
This is a case of the surface dictating which player should win. As one of the few serve and volleyers on tour, Cressy relishes the short grass-court season, while Djere's the epitome of a clay-court specialist, with a career 80-55 record on the dirt and 33-67 mark elsewhere (5-11 on grass). Cressy's results skew the opposite direction, as he's 12-8 on grass and 1-10 on clay. These players are only two spots apart in the rankings, but Cressy should be viewed as the clear favorite in this grass-court encounter.
Honorable Mention
Marton Fucsovics (+105) vs. Tallon Griekspoor
